Bitcoin’s August rally has cooled since the start of September, dipping below $77,000 briefly after the top cryptocurrency had reclaimed $80,000 for the first time since May.
That weakness has shaken the confidence of Kalshi traders, who now price the odds of BTC reaching $100,000 by the end of 2026 at just 25%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
The pullback comes after a month of significant strength from broader crypto markets, highlighted by Bitcoin’s jump of around 23% in the last 30 days of trading according to data from CoinGecko.
That strength, which was buoyed by significant ETF inflows, has retraced in recent days, with spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds producing outflows in two of the last three trading days, resulting in net outflows of more than $220 million over that period, according to CoinGlass.
In addition to the stalling ETF momentum, renewed tension between the U.S. and Iran and expectations of a September rate hike may be helping cool off the Bitcoin price action.
As the price has cooled, it has also significantly pulled down more optimistic forecasts for BTC.
Last week, traders on Kalshi had priced odds of Bitcoin extending to as high as $110,000 before the end of the year at 23% for a time. Those odds have now sunk more than 10% as Bitcoin has fallen to $77,041 at the time of writing, recently trading at just 12% for BTC to eclipse $109,999.99 before year end.
Odds of reaching even further, like making a new all-time high above $129,999.99, are just 5%.
At the time of writing, BTC is changing hands around $77,302.
Kalshi traders still see higher before lower
Nevertheless, as BTC has faded closer to the halfway point between $50,000 and $100,000, Kalshi traders still make a move to $100,000 the more likely next stop for BTC.
In the market which asks whether BTC will hit $50,000 before $100,000, traders price the odds of “$50,000 first” at just 14%. While those odds have jumped in the last week, they are down considerably from early August, when the move to $50,000 first was favored at as much as 63%.
Potential market movers
While the broader crypto market fades on Wednesday, traders must be aware of a few potential market moving events in the coming days and weeks.
On Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August jobs report, a critical metric which could influence the Federal Reserve's upcoming decision on rates.
At the time of writing, Kalshi traders price a nonfarm payroll increase of more than 40,000 jobs at 53%.
Later this month, the Federal Reserve will make its September rate decision at the conclusion of its FOMC Meetings on September 16 and 17.
Odds of a rate hike of 25bps are currently priced at 59%, though odds of holding rates steady stand at 41% at the time of writing.
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Image Source: André François McKenzie
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