Bitcoin’s recent surge above $85,000 has Kalshi traders repositioning odds of when the top crypto asset might hit $100,000 again.
BTC has jumped around 11% in the last week of trading, but slipped on Wednesday, recently changing hands around $84,265, according to data from CoinGecko. To get to $100,000, it will need to gain approximately 18.6% more from its current level.
Once deemed unlikely to happen before the end of the year by Kalshi traders, odds have shifted in the last week of trading. As of Wednesday morning, odds of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 before January 2027 are trading at 39%, up 22% in the last week as BTC continued its climb.
Should it hit the marker, just how high could it go this year?
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
When will Bitcoin hit $100,000 next?
Bitcoin’s recent price spike is evidence that the $1.7 trillion asset is capable of making big moves in a short amount of time.
But just how quickly might it be able to breach $100,000?
Not only have Kalshi traders repriced odds of it hitting the marker by January, but they’ve also boosted the probability of the event occurring even faster. For example, odds of BTC crossing $100,000 in December have jumped to 27%, while odds for doing so by November are now trading at 17%.
How high will BTC go this year? In September?
Just days ago, Kalshi traders priced the likelihood that BTC reached $100,000 before the end of the year at 38%. Those odds have climbed though as BTC continues its rally, fueled by the growing influx of cash into spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Over the last four trading days alone, Bitcoin ETFs have brought in more than $2.3 billion in cash, according to data from CoinGlass. Those inflows have been significant enough to help push yearly numbers back into the positive, erasing a summer lull which saw Bitcoin fade to trade below $60,000.
On the backs of the inflows and rising price, traders now give Bitcoin a 39% chance of trading above $99,999 before the end of the year, a slight gain in just a few days.
Should that move occur though, traders don’t foresee it happening in September. Kalshi traders currently forecast the top crypto asset will get as high as $88,000 in the last week of the month, but put the odds of it extending above $97,500 at just 4%.
Could Bitcoin make a new all-time high this year?
While odds of reaching $100,000 are increasing, traders are less optimistic about the chances that BTC can extend its gains to create a new all-time high. Last year, BTC topped out at $126,080, its highest ever price, according to data from CoinGecko.
Despite its recent surge, the BTC price is still trading at nearly 33% below that mark.
While Kalshi traders have increased odds of BTC exceeding $119,999 and $129,999 this year to 14% and 8%, respectively, the odds movement has been muted given the significance of the price jump needed and the market’s time decay.
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