Bitcoin is beginning the week strong.
The top crypto asset by market cap has surged more than 6% in the last 24 hours according to data from CoinGecko, breaking through $85,000 for the first time since January.
That surge builds on the momentum established by BTC at the conclusion of last week, bringing the asset’s weekly gain to nearly 10% as it changes hands around $85,000.
Kalshi traders think there may be more room to run, with odds of BTC eclipsing $90,000 during September now priced at 37%, a 18% increase overnight. Further out, odds are improving that Bitcoin reclaims $100,000 before the turn of the year, with traders now pricing the likelihood at 38%.
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Bitcoin price breaks above $85,000
Bitcoin’s recent spike has pushed the price back above $85,000 for the first time since January. Though the asset spent most of the year in a downtrend, momentum has started to swing in the favor of appreciation in recent weeks.
BTC is now up nearly 11% in the last 30 days of trading and if historical trading tendencies remain consistent, its weekly price close may serve to propel the price even higher.
That is because its recent weekly close pulled the price of Bitcoin back above its 50-week moving average, a measure of the asset’s average price over the most recent 50-week period.
Historically, this has been a strong indicator that Bitcoin’s low price for the cycle is in, according to Galaxy’s Head of Firmwide Research, Alex Thorn.
“BTC closes week above 50-week moving average for first time in 45 weeks,” Thorn posted on X. “Regaining the 50w MA has historically served as strong confirmation that bear market lows are ‘in,’” he added.
Other headlines are supporting the move as well. The largest Bitcoin treasury firm, Strategy, resumed its Bitcoin buys for the first time in about three weeks, according to a report from CoinDesk. The firm added another $75 million to its balance sheet, bringing its total holdings to 846,800 BTC worth around $71.7 billion at the time of writing.
How high will Bitcoin go in September? How high will BTC go this year?
The price spike has dramatically shifted odds for BTC’s near-term price action, with Kalshi traders now pricing the odds of a move above $90,000 in September at 37%.
Odds of that feat occurring were trading around 10% on Sunday morning, but quickly spiked to mirror the significance of the Bitcoin price swing.
A more reserved move, like one that would push Bitcoin above $87,500 before the end of the month is even more likely according to traders, who now make the odds 64%.
Zooming out, Kalshi traders have repriced odds of BTC reaching higher marks as the year draws to a close, too.
While odds for BTC breaching $100,000 traded as low as 16% last week, traders are now pricing the event at 38% on Monday morning. A more significant move, like one to $130,000 and a new all-time high, are priced at just 7% though, not budging despite Bitcoin’s Monday price surge.
Will Bitcoin finish the year positive?
Though Bitcoin pushed back towards its 2026 opening marker, Kalshi traders make odds for BTC finishing with a positive yearly return just 34%. That mark is relatively unchanged when compared to where it was trading last week, despite the fact that BTC has continued to rise.
Instead, altcoins like Chainlink (LINK) and Stellar Lumens (XLM) remain the most likely to finish the year positively according to Kalshi traders, with both priced at 40% to accomplish the feat.
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Image Source: André François McKenzie
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