The Atlanta Braves (62-43) visit the New York Mets (44-62) at Citi Field on Monday at 7:10 p.m. ET. Traders give Atlanta a 51% chance to win, with New York sitting at 49%, about as close to a coin flip as the market gets, despite Atlanta sitting 18.5 games ahead of New York in the NL East.
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Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: July 27, 2026.
Both lineups are missing a key bat: Juan Soto remains on the 10-day injured list for New York with a left calf strain, and Ronald Acuña Jr. is still out for Atlanta with a hamstring injury, though he's been on a rehab assignment and reports suggest he's close to returning, as of this writing (Note: Acuña is now listed as active for tonight’s game).
Martín Pérez takes the mound for Atlanta in his 16th start of the season, carrying a 6-6 record with a 3.38 ERA and 65 strikeouts over 85 1/3 innings. Opposite him, Zac Thornton makes his fifth start of the season for New York, and the early returns have been sharp: a 1.93 ERA and 17 strikeouts, with his last outing a six-inning, no-run performance against Milwaukee. Both are scheduled as of this writing, per MLB.com's probable pitchers page and the Braves' own site.
Atlanta arrives after taking two of three from Baltimore over the weekend: a 7-6 win in the series opener, a loss in the middle game, then a 3-2 win Sunday to close it out. Separately, the Braves have won 45 of 72 games this season when priced as the favorite, a 62.5% clip, while the Mets have won 29 of 58 games this season when they carried the favorite's price, essentially a coin flip. New York's pitching staff has also posted a 2.97 ERA over its last 10 games, a stretch that stands out against a team otherwise sitting last in the division.
The NL East race
The division standings add a layer of context to an otherwise even game market. Traders give Atlanta a 77% chance to win the NL East, with Philadelphia the only other realistic contender at 24%. New York sits at 1%, reflecting a 44-62 record that has the Mets firmly out of the division race. See the live NL East market on Kalshi.
The bigger picture: World Series odds
Atlanta is priced at 8% to win the World Series on Kalshi, trailing the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have a 34% chance. Meanwhile, the Mets’ current odds of winning it all sit at less than 1%.
Kalshi markets now predict:
With both starters throwing well lately and two key bats out, expect the price to keep moving as the lineups are finalized. Check the live Braves-Mets market for the latest number before the 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch.
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