The Denver Broncos open their preseason schedule on the road against the Atlanta Falcons Friday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, with kickoff at 7 p.m. ET. Kalshi's market price Denver at 64% and Atlanta at 37% as of this writing.
Denver finished 14-3 last season as the AFC's No. 1 seed before a divisional-round ankle injury to Bo Nix caused him to miss the AFC Championship entirely. Atlanta finished 8-9, missing the playoffs for an eighth straight season, its first under new head coach Kevin Stefanski.
Friday's game carries no divisional stakes, but Atlanta's night centers on Tua Tagovailoa's first outing as the team's starter in a competition with Michael Penix Jr., while Denver leans on backup Jarrett Stidham with Nix still working back from the fracture.
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NFL.
Snapshot
Matchup: Denver Broncos vs. Atlanta Falcons
Kickoff: Friday, Aug. 14, 2026, 7:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Watch: ESPNU
Kalshi's current number: 64% Denver Broncos / 37% Atlanta Falcons (as of this writing)
Denver Broncos vs. Atlanta Falcons, Friday, August 14, 2026
Kalshi's price leans toward Denver, a gap that traces mostly to who plays. Sean Payton has started Denver's preseason opener with a backup quarterback in each of the last two summers, and Stidham enters Friday on the back of Denver's seven-game preseason winning streak under Payton. Atlanta counters with its presumptive starter making his first appearance in a Falcons uniform, a different kind of stakes than Denver's depth-chart dress rehearsal.
Denver will again be without Bo Nix, who has not played since fracturing his ankle in January's divisional-round win over Buffalo; head coach Sean Payton has said Nix is targeting Denver's final two preseason games. Atlanta is also without edge rusher Jalon Walker, lost for the season, while quarterback Michael Penix Jr. remains without clearance for contact as he continues rehabbing a torn ACL.
The clearest story angle is Atlanta's quarterback competition. Falcons head coach Kevin Stefanski confirmed this week that Tagovailoa, released by Miami in March, will start Friday over Penix, who has yet to work in 11-on-11 drills. Tagovailoa arrives with plenty of talent around him, including running back Bijan Robinson and receiver Drake London, and Friday marks his first live look at that offense.
On the other side, Denver's preseason success under Payton has become a real trend. The Broncos have won seven straight preseason games since Payton's arrival, outscoring opponents 262-118 over that stretch, with Stidham passing for 742 yards and six total touchdowns.
AFC West Division
Denver's division race remains one of the tightest in football. Kalshi traders have the Broncos at 31% as of this writing, third in a field where Kansas City (34%) holds a narrow edge over the Los Angeles Chargers (32%).
NFC South Division
Atlanta's division picture is bleaker. Kalshi’s market has the Falcons at 20% as of this writing, last in the NFC South behind Tampa Bay (31%) and New Orleans (29%).
Margin of victory
Kalshi traders have Denver winning by over 4.5 points at 46% as of this writing, nearly a coin flip despite the wide gap on the win-probability line.
Point total
Kalshi traders have the game going over 39.5 points scored at 52% as of this writing.
The Takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
When is Denver Broncos vs. Atlanta Falcons? Friday, Aug. 14, 2026, at 7 p.m. ET.
Where is the game? Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.
How can I watch? ESPNU.
What is Kalshi's current number? Denver Broncos 64%, Atlanta Falcons 37%, as of this writing.
Denver enters as the favorite on Kalshi's market Friday, a number shaped less by regular-season pedigree than by which quarterback takes the first snap.
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image source: Alexander Jonesi
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC. Kalshi is not affiliated with the National Football League.
