Buccaneers vs. Jets odds: Geno Smith and Jets starters play as Baker Mayfield sits

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers open their preseason schedule on the road against the New York Jets Friday at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, with kickoff at 7 p.m. ET. Kalshi's market on the game has New York at 72% and Tampa Bay at 30% as of this writing.

Tampa Bay finished 8-9 last season and missed the playoffs, while New York is entering a new era under head coach Aaron Glenn after trading for quarterback Geno Smith. Friday's stakes lean toward New York's side of the ball: Glenn has said his first-team units, Geno Smith included, will play meaningful snaps, while Tampa Bay is without both of its top two quarterbacks.

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New York's price reflects a straightforward mismatch in who plays: the Jets are running their projected starting quarterback and a defense anchored by Sauce Gardner, Demario Davis and Minkah Fitzpatrick, while Tampa Bay's quarterback room is down to its third and fourth options.

Tampa Bay is without starter Baker Mayfield, held out as a precaution, and backup Jake Browning's status is in doubt as of this writing after a back injury sustained in Tuesday's joint practice, which could push rookie Connor Bazelak into extended first action. New York has no corresponding designations tied to Friday's game.

The clearest story angle is New York's quarterback room. Geno Smith, acquired via trade from Las Vegas, gets the starting nod in his Jets debut, with Glenn using the same starters-play-early approach he took with Justin Fields a year ago before sitting healthy players in the preseason finale.

Tampa Bay's second angle is the quarterback shuffle behind Mayfield: with Browning's status uncertain, both Bazelak and depth passer Jalon Daniels are in line for extended snaps against a Jets defense that has looked disruptive in camp, including edge rusher David Bailey, the draft's No. 2 overall pick.

Tampa Bay leads the division race it plays in. Kalshi traders have the Buccaneers at 31% as of this writing, narrowly ahead of New Orleans (29%) in a field that also includes Carolina (23%) and Atlanta (18%).

New York's market is a long shot. Traders price the Jets at 4% as of this writing, behind Buffalo (55%) and New England (39%).

Kalshi has New York winning by over 5.5 points at 54% as of this writing, close to even despite the wider gap on the win-probability line.

Kalshi has the game going over 35.5 points scored at 47% as of this writing.

Kalshi markets now predict:

When is Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Jets? Friday, Aug. 14, 2026, at 7 p.m. ET.

Where is the game? MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

How can I watch? NFL Network.

What is Kalshi's current number? Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30%, New York Jets 72%, as of this writing.

New York carries a wide edge on Kalshi's market Friday, built on a full-strength quarterback debut against a Tampa Bay team playing without its top two options at the position.

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