A Senate procedural vote on Tuesday afternoon came up short of the 60 votes needed to progress updated bill text for the Clarity Act, a bill that would establish the regulatory framework for the crypto ecosystem.
With not enough senators casting votes in favor of progressing updated bill text, which notably included new ethics language, odds of the Clarity Act becoming law by the end of the year have shrunk to just 8%. That reflects a drop of 23 percentage points in the last day of trading, as Kalshi traders wrestle with a shrinking timetable for passage before the year ends.
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But even longer dated markets, like for the Clarity Act to become a law before July 1 or October 1, 2027 were also affected, dropping to 15% and 13%, respectively, as traders mull the likelihood that the contentious bill gets passed in the next year. Extending out to January 1, 2028, Kalshi traders make the odds just 21%, down 42 percentage points in the last day of trading.
Prior to the vote, odds had spiked on Monday morning as hopes lifted that the bill could ultimately become law before the end of the year.
But despite pleas from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other members of the Trump administration to pass the bill, not enough votes were cast to invoke cloture.
Bitcoin, Ethereum drop amid Clarity Act vote
Crypto’s two largest assets both dropped in the last 24 hours as optimism surrounding the passage of the Clarity Act waned. Bitcoin has dropped nearly 4% to trade at $76,013 while Ethereum has fallen more than 5% during that time period, recently changing hands around $2,403, according to data from CoinGecko.
That slide has impacted predictions about the near-term future of the assets, with traders now making odds of Bitcoin hitting more than $99,999.99 just 19%, down 3 percentage points in the last day of trading and nearly 20% from earlier this month.
Ethereum markets were similarly affected, with odds of ETH reaching $3,500 falling to 23% and a bigger jump to $4,000 now priced at 15%.
Can the Clarity Act still become law?
The failed procedural vote has significantly diminished the odds of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026, but not completely removed the possibility that the bill eventually becomes law.
The bill could still be considered during the lame-duck session, but if it is not agreed to by both chambers of Congress before January 3, 2027, it must be reintroduced, according to a report from The Banker.
Nevertheless, the expected senator support forecast has shifted in the last day as well. Kalshi traders now forecast nearly 48 senators to support the bill if or when it gets to its final vote. That mark is down from more than 60 on Monday when it was reported that President Trump had agreed to the new ethics language included in the updated bill text.
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