Months of negotiations and uncertainty surrounding the Clarity Act, a piece of legislation that would provide the regulatory framework for the crypto ecosystem, may be approaching a resolution.
Odds for passage of the bill before January 1, 2027 have spiked after lawmakers unveiled a new version of the bill on Monday.
The development comes just ahead of a Tuesday, Sept. 15 procedural vote that could help determine whether or not the updated bill text could become law.
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Clarity Act odds spike ahead of procedural Senate vote
Kalshi traders have become significantly more optimistic about the chances of the Clarity Act becoming law.
Odds for the Clarity Act becoming law by the end of the year have jumped to 28%, up from as low as 14% last week. Even longer dated markets, like before April 1, 2027 or before July 1, 2027 have seen odds jump even higher, now trading around 45% and 49%, respectively.
The surge comes on the heels of newly approved ethics language that was deemed necessary to gain Democrat approval and ultimately push the bill closer to becoming law. The updated text also includes language on ethics enforcement, protections for developers, and clarifications on consumer protections.
“This text is truly bipartisan and includes more than 120 of Democrats’ demands,” Wyoming Senator and crypto advocate Cynthia Lummis said in a statement about the updated bill text.
“A no vote on Tuesday means opposing real ethics reforms on politicians’ personal investments, handing American leadership in digital assets to our foreign competitors, and leaving Americans with zero protections in the digital asset markets,” she added.
How many votes will the Clarity Act get?
On Tuesday, senators will participate in a procedural vote to determine whether or not the updated bill text will advance and be offered as an “Amendment in the Nature of a Substitute.”
In order for it to pass, and cloture to be invoked, the updated bill text will need 60 votes to end debate. Should that occur, the bill could move forward for a final vote which would require a simple majority, or at least 51 votes, for passage.
In the wake of the updated bill text, odds of 50 or more senators voting for the Clarity Act have jumped from as low as 34% on Sunday to more than 65% on Monday morning.
Odds of even greater support, like more than 60 senators voting for the Clarity Act should a final vote occur by the end of the year, has jumped to 50%.
What’s next for the Clarity Act?
Though Kalshi traders have become more optimistic about the bill’s ultimate passage by the end of the year, the Clarity Act is still a few steps from becoming a law.
On Tuesday, the Senate will hold a procedural vote to potentially end debate and move forward an amended bill for final vote. Should the procedural vote pass, senators will still need to “consider and pass the legislation.”
However, to get the bill to President Trump, the House will also need to approve the updated version. That can be done via “a formal conference committee or through an exchange of amendments between the chambers,” according to a report from The Banker.
Should both chambers of congress approve the same bill text, then it could be passed to President Trump’s desk for approval or veto.
FAQ
What is the Clarity Act?
The Clarity Act, formally the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, is legislation that would create a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, splitting oversight of digital assets between the SEC and the CFTC.
When is the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
The Senate holds a procedural cloture vote on Tuesday, Sept. 15, 2026, to decide whether to advance the updated bill text toward a final vote.
How many votes does the Clarity Act need to pass?
The bill needs 60 votes to invoke cloture and end debate. If that succeeds, final passage requires a simple majority, at least 51 votes.
What are the current odds the Clarity Act becomes law?
Kalshi traders price the Clarity Act becoming law before January 1, 2027 at 28%, up from as low as 14% the prior week.
Who is leading the push for the Clarity Act in the Senate?
Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, along with Senators John Boozman and Tim Scott, released the final version of the bill text ahead of the vote.
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