The stage is finally set.
This Monday (January 19), Indiana University will take on the University of Miami at Hard Rock Stadium in the final game of the college football season. No. 1 Indiana (15-0) is in hot pursuit of its first national title, while No. 10 Miami (13-2) has high hopes of obtaining its sixth championship.
Currently, Kalshi’s traders price in a 74% chance of victory for IU, while Miami is priced at 26¢. Indiana is favored to win by 9.5 points (Yes 49¢), and the game total is currently set at 48.5 combined points (Over 52¢).
Let’s dive into the upcoming championship matchup.
This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.
At this point, undefeated Big Ten winner Indiana appears to be the team of destiny. Second-year head coach Curt Cignetti is on the cusp of a program revitalization for the ages. Cignetti keeps his squad motivated like none other, which is a major factor in why IU is ranked second nationally in both offensive (42.6 PPG) and defensive scoring (11.1 PPG allowed).
Junior quarterback Fernando Mendoza managed to win the Heisman Trophy after just one season in Bloomington. With that, Mendoza, who sports a staggering 41-6 TD-INT ratio at this time, has pulled all the right strings in these playoffs. Ahead of the title game, Indiana has outscored its postseason opponents, 94-25. He should be thrilled to return to his native home of South Florida with a shot for all the marbles.
Speaking of South Florida natives, Miami head coach Mario Cristobal (who actually attended the same high school as Mendoza, and played on the same team as Mendoza’s father) has earned the luxury of competing for a national title at the program’s home venue. U of M has gone 7-1 in games played at Hard Rock Stadium this season, suffering a lone loss to Louisville.
This current iteration of Miami football is powered by a hellacious defensive front. The U is allowing only 86.5 YPG rushing, which lands near the top of Division I. Senior lineman Akheem Mesidor has led the way with 10.5 sacks and 15.5 TFL. Come Monday night, Mesidor and his teammates will make it their utmost priority to disrupt Mendoza’s laser-sharp timing.
Per ESPN’s SP+ index, IU is viewed as the top squad in the nation. Meanwhile, Miami is eight spots down, landing ninth overall. Regardless, Miami has already defeated four of the schools listed within the top 10.
How they got here
Indiana rolled over the Big Ten in 2025 on its quest to be the third team from the conference in three years to win the natty. IU’s stock in Kalshi’s championship market reached as low as one cent last May. Indiana gradually climbed the chart throughout the campaign, but victories against Oregon (Oct. 11), Michigan State (Oct. 18), and Ohio State (Dec. 6) noticeably boosted its chances.
As impressive as IU was in the regular season, this team has turned up the intensity for the playoffs. In their recent wins versus Alabama and Oregon, Indiana’s defense has tallied six sacks and four takeaways. Senior linebacker Aiden Fisher has been seemingly everywhere on the field. Look for him to be a difference maker in Miami.
The U did not always appear bound for greatness in 2025, but its resiliency this year has been thoroughly impressive. Miami lost to two of its first six power-four opponents. UM’s most recent loss came in Dallas against SMU, which occurred on November 1. Immediately following, Miami’s price in the national title market dropped to one cent.
Miami has shocked the world this postseason, snapping off three straight victories, including two as an underdog. The U outlasted Texas A&M in College Station before earning historic wins over Ohio State and Ole Miss. In the latter, the offensive connection of quarterback Carson Beck to receiver Malachi Toney — who is presently listed as a favorite at Kalshi to win the 2026 Heisman Trophy — proved pivotal. Both Beck and Toney registered fourth-quarter touchdowns with their legs.
Indiana and Miami each enter this title bid with fabulous talent and backstories. Both coaches have done amazing jobs and instill grit and tenacity in their respective programs. Surely, a monumental finish to the 2025-26 campaign awaits.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now forecast:
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