New York, N.Y. — On the eve of the 2025 Heisman Trophy Ceremony at the Lincoln Center, Kalshi traders are pricing Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza as an overwhelming favorite, with a 97% chance of winning the award.
Perhaps college football’s most prestigious event, the Heisman ceremony in New York City is always a marquee moment for both sports and pop culture. Some years, it feels as if a specific player is destined for the honor. However, 2025 was certainly not one of those years.
Fernando-mania
Mendoza — a junior from Miami, FL — just helped orchestrate the finest football campaign in Indiana University’s history. IU has played to a perfect 13-0 record (and counting) in Mendoza’s first season on campus. His 33 passing touchdowns in 2025 is the highest mark in FBS, and greatly contributed to Indiana winning its first Big Ten title on the gridiron since 1967.
A transfer from the University of California, Berkeley, Mendoza was a very solid player over the previous two seasons. He totaled 4,924 all-purpose yards throughout his time at California, and as a fan favorite, supporters of the program were surprised to see him enter the transfer portal last winter.
Upon arriving in Bloomington, Mendoza was not considered a future Heisman candidate. Even as recently as September 19, he was trading at just one cent on Kalshi despite a 3-0 start for the cream and crimson.
But after producing a 181.4 passing rating in 2025, Mendoza is now a strong favorite to become Indiana University’s first Heisman winner. Prior to this season, halfback Anthony Thomas’ second-place finish in 1989 (narrowly losing to Houston’s Andre Ware) was the closest any IU player had come.
Notably, top-ranked Indiana has more to focus on than the Heisman ceremony. IU is currently priced at 22% to win the upcoming National Championship, second only to Ohio State (30%).
An underdog’s underdog
According to Kalshi’s traders, Vanderbilt signal caller Diego Pavia is the only other player with a visible chance to win the 2025 Heisman Trophy. Pavia — a transfer quarterback, himself — is trading at four cents.
Pavia boasts one of the top underdog stories in college football history. Undersized for his position, he received zero Division I scholarship offers after graduating high school. That persuaded Pavia to go the junior college route via the New Mexico Military Institute.
Following incredible success at NMMI, Pavia transferred to New Mexico State University. He quickly established himself as a beacon in Las Cruces, demonstrating dazzling dual-threat abilities over two years.
Pavia finally arrived at Vanderbilt in 2024. However, his play in 2025 has thrust him into the national spotlight. This year, Pavia has thrown 27 touchdowns while producing nine additional scores with his legs. His efforts were good enough to attract First-Team All-SEC honors.
Vanderbilt football has one remaining contest this year, as they will take on the University of Iowa in a bowl game on New Year’s Eve. Kalshi’s traders price Vandy’s chances of winning at 66%.
The field
Outside of Mendoza and Pavia, Kalshi’s market currently has no other players with a likelihood above 1%. However, Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love and Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin are still trading in the market at one cent. Sayin’s presence here is especially impressive, as he is the lone freshman receiving Heisman consideration.
An absence that has the football community talking is that of Texas quarterback Arch Manning. After an up-and-down season, Manning still managed to help UT achieve a 9-3 record. Regardless, he was not named as a 2025 Heisman finalist despite trading as high as 17 cents in this market prior to the season.
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