Happy Saturday, traders.
We hope your week has gone well and you’re looking forward to a fun and relaxing weekend. But we’re going to look a little further into the future towards something that will likely make a lot of you excited: college football, which is just five weeks away (four if you count “Week Zero”).
Last year was marked by the historic Cinderella story of the Indiana Hoosiers, the chaos of the transfer portal and coaching changes during the playoffs, and the rise of NIL. We can guarantee similar craziness will happen this season, though we don’t know exactly what’s in store. So let’s see what Kalshi’s traders are forecasting for the upcoming season.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA. See full disclaimer below.
Who’s number 1?
We’re going to start off with talking about the metric that sets the precedent for the majority of conversations that happen during the season: the AP Poll. Every week a panel of sports journalists get together to rank the top 25 teams in college football. Right now, most traders speculate that Ohio State will be the #1 Ranked Team on Week 1 of the AP Poll.
Though Ohio State lost only two games last season, the Big Ten Championship against Indiana and the College Football Playoff Cotton Bowl against Miami, the Buckeyes have done some major restructuring, primarily concerning the coaching staff. Arthur Smith was hired as offensive coordinator and Robby Discher was hired as special teams coordinator after both units drew criticism for their loss in the playoffs.
Despite the change ups, the team was able to retain top talent through a hyperactive transfer portal. As coach Ryan Day put it, “I don’t think people quite realize the amount of resources it takes to retain a roster of starting players at Ohio State because everybody in the country wants those guys.”
All of this has led traders to speculate Ohio State will be ranked number one, though Notre Dame and Oregon aren’t far behind. While all of these teams played well, the one game none of them played in last season brings us to our next topic of discussion.
The natty
Despite being nearly six months away, speculation as to who will win the College Football National Championship has already begun. Powerhouse programs Ohio State, Texas, and Notre Dame are currently being favored by traders, while Oregon, Georgia, and Indiana are viewed as legitimate contenders.
Notre Dame, after not being selected for the College Football Playoff last year, made the controversial decision to decline a bowl game invitation in protest of the committee’s decision. The Fighting Irish were passed over in favor of Miami, which had beaten them head-to-head in the season opener.
Importantly, winning the conference championship in a power four conference is a guaranteed way to get a bid for the playoff.
What that means for this year is that the Fighting Irish are likely to have a fire under them. They’ll be driven not only by their desire to lift the trophy, but to spite the committee they feel wronged them. Marcus Freeman picked up a ton of superstar recruits, not just for this season, but also for the years to come. What remains to be seen is how well the highly rated newcomers from high school and the transfer portal will mesh with the veteran roster that is deep and already loaded with talent. Notably, the team is also highly rated to have an undefeated season.
Portal moves
Moving on from the Fighting Irish, but not controversy impacting this season, it’s time to talk about the transfer portal that closed for the 2026 season while the 2025 season was still ongoing. After hiring Lane Kiffin, LSU landed QB Sam Leavitt from Arizona State, who Tiger fans are hopeful will help them win multiple championships over the next few years.
In another move, Josh Hoover left TCU for Indiana to join Curt Cignetti and fill the biggest shoes possible. The previous QB transfer to Indiana, Fernando Mendoza, won the Heisman, a national championship, and went No. 1 in the NFL draft. We’re not saying that Hoover has to win the Heisman, which traders have CJ Carr and Arch Manning competing for at the moment, but the transfer will definitely be feeling some pressure.
While we could spend days writing about more moves in the transfer portal, there is one thing that we haven’t talked about yet that complicates matters, especially involving the portal: NIL deals.
Name, image, and likeness
While we can’t say if it was a seven-figure deal, the “Popeyes Kid” signing an NIL deal with Popeyes 10 years after he went viral on Vine is by far the best NIL story.
Player movement, either through the portal or signing from high school, is now just as much and possibly even more of a financial decision than an athletic one. Previously, players would usually transfer schools to get better coaching, more playing time, or an environment more conducive to their athletic development.
When superstar collegiate athletes are inking mid-seven-figure NIL deals equal to or better than most NFL and NBA players, it’s easy to see how a 20-year-old could be swayed to pick one team over the other. And this likely leads to further craziness in the two-week period the transfer portal is open.
The athletes themselves aren’t the only ones impacted by NIL. The roster cost for coaches and management has skyrocketed. Some GMs believe a team needs $25+ million to truly compete for a national title, and it’s part of the reason a powerhouse team like Texas is reportedly approaching $50 million in roster cost.
What this means for coaches though is that a team spending tens of millions on their roster expects results, and a coach who can’t deliver is likely to see the door much faster than they would have five years ago.
Between the craziness of the transfer portal, NIL deals, and everything else that is expected to happen unexpectedly, college football kickoff is bound to be as wild and entertaining this year as ever. With five weeks until kickoff, there are tons of Kalshi markets to trade on games and the overall season, with tons more to be added in the coming weeks.
Follow Jack Kuveke at Jabroni Capital
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