College football Week 11 predictions and odds: Should USC be a huge underdog to Indiana?

Unlike what the college football committee is apparently doing on Saturday, let’s learn more about these teams as we keep an eye on the College Football Playoff odds, shall we?

Saturday’s win-or-go-home game through that lens is obvious. The committee really punished #6 Indiana, dropping it to 9th in the official rankings during a bye week. They don’t have a great win yet, but #15 USC could be one.

This could also be an upset-heavy week. All of #8 Texas, #10 Texas Tech, #11 Wake Forest, and #19 Ole Miss are road underdogs on the exchange, and that’s not even counting a few close matchups elsewhere.

Kalshi's college football traders arrived at some unusual conclusions for Week 11’s ranked action. Let’s see what they’re thinking.

(Click here for Kalshi’s latest College Football Power Rankings.)

^{For informational purposes only. This is opinion, not trading advice. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA. See full disclaimer below.}

In the race for who will battle Miami in the ACC Championship, this is a pivotal one in Dallas.

Jake Dickert’s Wake Forest bunch has been a gigantic surprise. They stayed within 14 points of the Canes and, a week later, upset the then-ranked Louisville Cardinals in their backyard. Little did we know that the effort would begin a six-game winning streak and propel them into CFP contention.

North Carolina transfer Gio Lopez (84.3 QBR) has been balling, but we’ve got to keep context in mind. They’ve beaten four straight conference opponents with losing records, followed by FCS Merrimack, which got drubbed by 77 points.

#25 SMU might be unranked to the committee, but they’re a real challenge. Kevin Jennings, the starter during 2024’s playoff run, is top six in both passing yards (2,764) and touchdowns (25). Rhett Lashley’s defense is also 29th in yards per play allowed (4.9 YPP) and stout as usual.

The Mustangs lost at both Louisville and Syracuse by a combined 13 points, but they haven’t lost in Big D since last September against Baylor in double overtime. They’re 17-2 at home since the start of 2024. I like that trend over a Demon Deacons squad that’s perhaps gotten a bit fat off cupcakes.

Swami's Crystal Ball Says: SMU 28, Wake Forest 27

For as much as Lincoln Riley puffed out his chest after a big win over Ohio State, that bravado really disappears if USC can’t build on that momentum to genuinely win the big games against teams at full strength that Riley was hired to win.

The defending champions in Bloomington are certainly that. Curt Cignetti’s bunch will be delighted to have Josh Hoover back despite the veteran QB not practicing all week. Without Hoover, they managed just 29 points in regulation over the last two weeks against two unranked schools, Michigan and Minnesota.

USC still has a pronounced edge in that column, though, as Jayden Maiava (81.8 QBR) is fresh off torching a good Ohio State defense for 10.1 yards per attempt (YPA). The Hoosiers are 24th in YPA allowed, but the Buckeyes were 5th.

The one difference with this USC team has been their ability to stop the run, ranking 39th in yards allowed per carry (3.8). Indiana averages 171.5 rushing yards per game, so making them one-dimensional is a must.

We want to give Indiana the pedigree they earned last year, but they sent eight guys to the NFL. This year’s team has faced four teams with a winning record, and all were one-score games. Now, a quality USC bunch can’t replicate those efforts?

Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Indiana 24, USC 23

One of the strangest seasons that no one is paying much attention to belongs to unranked Oklahoma. They’re 5-4 and presumably out of the postseason, but it’s due to letdowns in very winnable spots, like at home against Kentucky or South Carolina.

They upset Texas in the Red River Rivalry, and John Mateer’s bunch is coming off a stunning win over Florida in Gainesville. Do they defy expectations again here?

Brent Venables’ defense is, as usual, elite. OU is 25th in YPP allowed (4.8). It’s been Mateer’s untimely mistakes, with 7 interceptions and 21 sacks, that have led to embarrassing moments.

In that way, they’re sort of a nightmare matchup for an Ole Miss team that can’t stop anyone. Georgia posted 28 unanswered first-half points. Pete Golding’s unit is 73rd in yards per play allowed (5.5 YPP), and Trinidad Chambliss is struggling mightily against quality defenses. He mustered just 4.8 YPA against Texas, and it was 5.0 against Georgia. Running back Kewan Lacy is also done for the year.

Defensively, Oklahoma is on that same level. This could be a low-scoring affair where Mateer’s legs can make a key play or two.

Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Oklahoma 20, Ole Miss 19

What a world we live in. Kyle Whittingham departed #2 Utah, and many felt the program might collapse. They’re enjoying a mammoth year while Whittingham doesn’t really care about UM’s rivalry games.

As we mentioned last week, Morgan Scalley’s bunch is definitely getting it done differently. QB Devon Dampier and RB Wayshawn Parker are a dynamic offensive duo; Dampier is tied for 11th in touchdown passes (11), and Parker is averaging 6.2 yards per tote.

Utah’s defense is definitely in a “bend but don’t break” mindset for yardage, but they did come up with four interceptions of Bear Bachmeier to stay undefeated. #22 Arizona has a real passing game, though.

Noah Fifita is top five in passing yards (2,794) across FBS and has posted multiple passing scores in six of his last seven games. Above all, the Wildcats’ defense (27th in YPP allowed) is perhaps the best in school history. They’ve lost two road games to BYU and Texas Tech by a combined 19 points.

Arizona doesn’t feel like a tough place to play, but they’ve won 14 of their last 19 at home despite. If Utah survives this one, they may have truly earned the Big 12 title. That might also be the statement Devon Dampier needs to make up ground in the Heisman Trophy race.

Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Utah 31, Arizona 29

It’s not often you’re wondering if the 8th-ranked team in the country can keep it close, but this is another one of those wonky SEC projections that seems to always deliver. You can see that, even in the lookahead market, #24 LSU was never projected to lose here.

The margin of error for Lane Kiffin’s bunch is gone. Losses to Ole Miss, Kentucky, and now playoff-bound Alabama aren’t wholly embarrassing, but an 8-4 SEC team will still be below at least four representatives from the same conference.

It’s actually kind of insane LSU managed to not just lose last Saturday against ’Bama, much less get blown out. They averaged more YPP (5.6) than the Tide (5.4) and won time of possession (32:45). But Sam Leavitt has just 3 passing TDs to 3 interceptions in their trio of losses this year, and he was once again dysfunctional at the wrong time on Saturday.

Leavitt’s 9 picks lead the SEC, ahead of Arch Manning (7), who is also coming off his best game of the season for a Texas team that was missing stars like EDGE Colin Simmons and WR Cam Coleman. Manning posted 7.8 YPA with no turnovers. Those two helpers return for this one.

There’s definitely variance in this game when you’ve got two top-five defenses in YPP allowed squaring off with mistake-prone quarterbacks, but the environment at “Death Valley” alone could be worth the 4.5 points that separate these two teams to traders at the moment.

Swami's Crystal Ball Says: LSU 27, Texas 21

“Mestemaker Mania” has taken over the Big 12. Traders see Oklahoma State ending Texas Tech’s season with the best team they’ve had in Stillwater since their 2023 squad that went 10-4.

The projected No. 1 pick in Kalshi’s 2027 NFL Draft odds will have a tough decision to make on that front, but lambasting a Texas Tech team that’s 107th in yards per pass attempt allowed (7.9) could certainly help his case as the next great QB prospect.

Tech sent six defensive starters to last year’s draft and is still reeling from it, but at the very least, Tommy Castellanos has stabilized, if not energized, their offensive attack. They’ve scored 87 (!) points in his two starts against a very good defense (Arizona) and a very bad one (West Virginia).

Oklahoma State (84th in YPP allowed) isn’t exactly modeled after the 1985 Chicago Bears, either, though. Some of their poor counting stats are also a major concern when they’re 54th in overall strength of schedule.

This one has a vintage Big 12 feel. Almost every possession could end in a score, and the last team to have the ball might win. For as electric as Castellanos’ legs have been, a Red Raiders team that is so poor in the secondary will never truly be able to vanquish perhaps the best quarterback in the country.

Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Oklahoma State 45, Texas Tech 41

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