Heisman Trophy odds update: CJ Carr is in the mix after outdueling Darian Mensah

We knew that the Nov. 7 Miami-Notre Dame game would have an impact on the College Football Playoff odds, but the race for the Heisman was on the line, too.

With the Irish’s victory, CJ Carr has emerged as a real threat to win one of the most prestigious awards in sports. Miami QB Darian Mensah is still in the mix, and we’ll check in on how Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith is faring without his starting signal-caller.

So, here’s how Kalshi's college football traders see the current Heisman Trophy odds.

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In our last Heisman odds update, Jeremiah Smith was comfortably out front with Darian Mensah mounting an outside charge. What could go wrong has gone wrong for the star wide receiver.

Ohio State has lost consecutive games as Luke Fahey (44.9 QBR) has been largely inefficient. Smith, thankfully, was able to gather in seven catches for 133 receiving yards and a touchdown in Saturday’s loss to Oregon, but that was the Buckeyes’ third setback of the season.

If the team doesn’t make the College Football Playoff, it doesn’t eliminate Smith from the mix, but it certainly would defy trends a bit. Just three of the last 10 Heisman winners (Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels and Travis Hunter) were on teams that finished the regular season outside of the AP Top 10.

That’s not entirely off the table for Ohio State, though. They could run the table in three final games with Northwestern, Nebraska, and Michigan and make the dance, and the committee could be lenient if Julian Sayin, Smith’s quarterback, is projected to return by mid-December.

We knew what Darian Mensah was up against on Saturday. Notre Dame is 19th in passing yards per attempt allowed (6.3), and he was overwhelmed, completing just 24 of 43 passes in his first full game since Malachi Toney’s ankle injury.

The good news for his Heisman campaign was that Miami fought valiantly enough to all but lock up their playoff spot. They’ve got three unranked ACC foes ahead before that conference’s title game against either Wake Forest or Louisville. In all but the last tilt, the ’Canes should be a double-digit-point favorite.

Toney’s injury, for as unfortunate as it is, also creates immense clarity that, if Miami runs the table with either of these other two contenders dropping off, it’ll be Mensah that contends for the trophy.

With not a single vote that gets cast until after conference championships, the Heisman has always been a “what have you done for me lately?” type of award. CJ Carr picked a good time to get hot.

Carr set a season high for completions (29) in a game where Notre Dame ran for just 93 yards. He was the engine that allowed the Irish to score 31 offensive points in a game that all but wrapped up their CFP position.

He’s now 7th in FBS in QBR (84.5), and rising with a mark above 89.0 in five of his last eight games.

With a cupcake schedule ahead, Carr’s biggest obstacle is that Notre Dame has rarely needed his services to win this year. Saturday, in primetime, was an exception.

You can see that Carr peaked at 36% after the win, but the initial wave was met with a grimmer outlook that his counting stats might peter out compared to Smith and Mensah for the rest of the season.

I actually think Devon Dampier (5%) is an interesting name lurking in this market. Undefeated Utah, now No. 2 in the AP Top 25, basically wrapped up a spot in the Big 12 Championship in December with Saturday’s 28-20 win over BYU. Beyond that, Dampier faces a ranked Arizona squad on Nov. 14 and closes the regular season against a West Virginia team that’s 137th in total defense (523.9 yards per game). Of these frontrunners, Dampier arguably has the most room to pad his case.

That’s even with Gunner Stockton (5%) still to play a ranked South Carolina team for Georgia, the top team in the country. Stockton has been efficient (81.4 QBR), but the story with Carr is similar here. He threw the ball just 15 times in Saturday’s 42-7 blowout of Ole Miss, and the Dawgs’ D continues to carry that bunch. His odds might represent the chance these candidates totally implode.

Unfortunately for Jesse Legree (<1%), the FBS leader in receiving yards (1,209) and touchdowns (14) won’t vie for the award on a 5-4 Oregon State team, but he may still receive an invite to New York.

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