Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen has entered the race for Senate majority leader, but Kalshi traders believe Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer will become majority leader when Democrats take control of the chamber in January.
Kalshi's market for the next Senate majority leader shows Schumer at 86%, Van Hollen at 14% and Sen. Brian Schatz at 2%.
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Van Hollen challenges Schumer for Senate majority leader
Van Hollen previously announced that he would not support Schumer's leadership bid before launching his own challenge.
The New York Times reported Van Hollen made his announcement on MS NOW on the evening of Thursday, Nov. 12. He said his decision to run was “not about any one individual.” He sees his candidacy as an answer to “the call of the American people” who sent so many Democrats to Congress during the 2026 midterm elections.
Van Hollen says more than 10 of the 55 Democratic senators and senators-elect support his candidacy.
ABC News reported that Van Hollen said he realizes he’s the “underdog” in the race.
“We should not be preserving our institutions if they are not delivering for the American people, and we should be making delivering for the American people the single mission of our government, even when that means shaking things up, and that is why I’m running for the majority leader in the United States Senate,” Van Hollen said at an event in Denver.
Several Democratic senators and senators-elect have publicly endorsed Van Hollen's leadership bid. The Hill reported that Sen.-elect Abdul El-Sayed endorsed Van Hollen for Senate majority leader on CNN News Central.
“I’ve been very clear: I think he’d be an amazing Senate majority leader,” El-Sayed said.
ABC News also reported that Sen.-elect Peggy Flanagan said she plans to vote for Van Hollen for Senate majority leader.
“Minnesotans are demanding change,” Flanagan posted on X. “Democrats need to deliver. That starts with new voices in our leadership. I believe @ChrisVanHollen is the leader and fighter we need to bring about real change, so no American is left behind.”
Sen. Bernie Sanders also threw his support behind Van Hollen’s campaign.
“The American people voted for change,” Sanders wrote on his X page. “They want a Democratic Party that will stand up to powerful special interests, take on the billionaire class and fight for working families. That is why I am supporting Chris Van Hollen to lead Senate Democrats.”
Schumer, meanwhile, maintains that he has enough votes to retain his leadership position. Roll Call reported that Schumer said in a statement, “I have the votes to continue serving as Democratic Leader. I look forward to leading our new Democratic majority and delivering for the American people.”
The takeaway:
Kalshi traders now predict:
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