Democrats have widened their lead on Kalshi's U.S. Senate control market as several Republican-held seats have become increasingly competitive.
The market for which party will win the U.S. Senate shows the Democratic Party leading at 63%, up from 49% on Sept. 14, followed by the Republican Party at 39%.
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Campaign spending
Outside groups are pouring millions of dollars into competitive Senate races across the country.
The Detroit News reported that Michigan’s Senate race alone between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers has attracted some big donors such as “tech billionaire Elon Musk, rapper Macklemore, financial executive Charles Schwab, auto racing tycoon Roger Penske, and the DeVos family.”
The Columbus Dispatch reported that campaigns and outside groups have spent or reserved more than $241 million in TV, radio and mailed ads for Ohio's U.S. Senate race between former Sen. Sherrod Brown and Sen. Jon Husted, according to Medium Buying, a Columbus-based ad tracking firm. That number climbs to nearly $300 million when digital advertising is included, according to AdImpact. Spending could continue to rise as the race enters its final stretch ahead of the November election, especially as a Musk-backed super PAC pours additional money into the contest.
“High stakes and tight polls are a recipe for money to start flowing,” the Dispatch wrote. “Consider 2024, when Brown’s race against Sen. Bernie Moreno racked up $483.4 million and broke the spending record for non-presidential contests, according to AdImpact.”
The surge in spending reflects the importance both parties are placing on races that could determine Senate control. NPR’s Morning Edition reported that spending is also up in the New Hampshire Senate race between Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican John Sununu.
“Spending on political ads, even on the most perishable kind, is only growing,” NPR reported.
Key Senate races
Some key Senate races could help Democrats regain control of the Senate.
The Washington Post highlighted nine Senate races that could flip party control in November, six of which could change from Republican to Democratic. Those possible red-to-blue flips include North Carolina, Ohio, Maine, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas.
“Even red states aren’t safe when you see a president whose numbers have dropped as much as Trump’s have,” said Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for the nonpartisan election analysis site Cook Political Report.
The Washington Post also reported that Democrats' path to a Senate majority has become more feasible than it appeared earlier in the election cycle.
“Democrats have been favored to seize control of the House, which has a narrow Republican majority,” the Post wrote. “The math in the Senate is more daunting: Democrats control 47 seats to Republicans’ 53.”
“The clearest path to a majority requires Democrats to retain all of their seats and win four GOP-controlled seats, including at least two in states President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024,” the Post wrote. “That path, which once felt like a long shot, now seems feasible.”
Balance of power
Kalshi's congressional balance-of-power market also currently prices a Democratic sweep as its highest-priced outcome.
A Democratic sweep sits at 62%, followed by Democratic House control combined with Republican Senate control at 28% and a Republican sweep at 8%.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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