Two of MMA's most entertaining fighters are stepping back into the cage tonight, and traders are already calling it. Nate Diaz and Mike Perry, both long removed from major competition, are set to square off, and Kalshi markets are giving Perry the edge.
The market is favoring Perry to win tonight’s match with a price at 61% to 39%.
Round of Victory
Markets suggest the fight is more likely to go the distance than end in an early stoppage. Traders feel the bout between Diaz and Perry will end in a decision, draw, or no contest ruling at 55%, followed by Perry winning in the first round at 13%, and Perry winning in the second round at 10%.
Method of Victory
Markets remain split on how Perry would win the fight. Perry winning by KO/TKO/DQ sits at 34%, followed by Perry winning by decision at 28%. Diaz winning by submission sits at 20%.
Mike Perry
Perry stepped away from professional MMA in 2021 after racking up 14 wins with 11 knockouts. That same year, he signed with the Bare Knuckle Fighting Championship, becoming the sport's biggest and most recognizable star with wins over favorites like Julian Lane, Eddie Alvarez, and Michael "Venom" Page.
He also competed in Triad Combat, defeating Michael Seals in his league debut. The BKFC named Perry its Male Fighter of the Year for 2023.
Nate Diaz
Diaz stepped away from professional MMA in 2022 with 22 wins and four knockouts.
He launched his own fighting promotion company, Real Fight Inc. He also headlined boxing matches against Jake Paul in 2023, which he lost by unanimous decision, and Jorge Masvidal in 2024, which he won, avenging his 2019 loss.
Yahoo! Sports reported that Diaz is looking to set up a third fight with his longtime rival Conor McGregor, a fight that was reportedly sought for Diaz's return but he wants to wait for the right moment. Diaz said on The Ariel Helwani Show, "I'm not trying to be a comeback story for Conor. I want Conor back, then I want him to be f---ing showing people he's whipping ass, and then that's the guy I want. I don't want to be fighting a guy that [people] don't know about."
The takeaway: Kalshi markets now predict
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