Kalshi traders have the Indianapolis Colts at 66% to win and the Miami Dolphins at 34% in a Week 10 game between a 2-7 team on a five-game losing streak and a 1-7 team starting a new quarterback. Indianapolis led Dallas 23-20 late on Nov. 8 before losing 27-23 on a Javonte Williams touchdown with 1:08 left, and a desperation pass from Daniel Jones was then intercepted.
Miami lost 19-9 to Detroit, placed Malik Willis on injured reserve with a core-muscle injury and will give Kyle McCord the first start of his NFL career. Kalshi's Power Rankings put the teams at Nos. 28 and 29, and Kalshi traders have the Colts at 2% and the Dolphins at less than 1% to make the playoffs.
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NFL.
When and where do the Dolphins play the Colts in Week 10 of the 2026 season?
The Dolphins and Colts kick off Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Who is favored to win the Dolphins vs. Colts Week 10 game?
Miami Dolphins: Miami is 1-7 under head coach Jeff Hafley, with its lone win the 28-25 decision at the Jets on Oct. 25 and a 19-9 home loss to Detroit on Nov. 8. McCord is the starting quarterback after Willis went on injured reserve and is expected to miss at least four games, and McCord has not played in a regular-season NFL game, according to NFL Network. As of this writing, defensive tackle Zach Sieler (biceps) is on season-ending injured reserve, and Friday's final report lists receiver Jared Wayne and center Aaron Brewer (concussion) as out. Kalshi traders have the Dolphins at 34%, with the quarterback change and the 1-7 record holding the price down.
Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis is 2-7 under head coach Shane Steichen and has lost five straight, most recently 27-23 to Dallas on Nov. 8, a game in which it led 23-20 after a 50-yard field goal from Spencer Shrader. Jones, the starting quarterback, has 1,722 passing yards, six touchdowns and 10 interceptions this season. As of this writing, Friday's final report lists linebackers Akeem Davis-Gaither (knee) and Jaylon Carlies (neck), tight end Mo Alie-Cox (groin), tackle Jalen Travis (knee) and defensive tackle Jerry Tillery (calf) as out. Kalshi traders have the Colts at 66%, with home field and a Miami offense changing quarterbacks driving the price despite the losing streak.
Kalshi Power Rankings
Indianapolis enters as the No. 28 team in the league with a Power Score of 10.5 and a 2% playoff qualification price, while Miami ranks 29th with a Power Score of 9.6 and a playoff price below 1%, a one-spot gap heading into the AFC matchup.
What the Kalshi market says
Kalshi traders have the Colts at 66% to win and the Dolphins at 34%.
What is the point spread for Dolphins vs. Colts in Week 10?
As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Colts winning by more than 3.5 points at 52%.
What is the projected point total?
As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the game finishing over 39.5 total points at 45%.
What is the biggest storyline in the Dolphins vs. Colts Week 10 game?
The biggest storyline is McCord's first NFL start. Miami acquired him from Green Bay in August for a 2028 sixth-round pick, according to the Packers, and he now takes over for Willis against a Colts defense that gave up 42 points at Jacksonville on Nov. 1 and 27 to Dallas on Nov. 8. Jones has thrown 10 interceptions, so the quarterback matchup carries risk for both sides.
What are the Dolphins' and Colts' expectations for the rest of the 2026 season?
Miami Dolphins: Miami is 1-7 with its lone win at the Jets, and it has lost its last two games to New England (24-19) and Detroit (19-9). Kalshi traders have the Dolphins at less than 1% to make the playoffs. After Indianapolis they visit Buffalo on Nov. 22, host the Jets on Nov. 29 and visit Denver on Dec. 6.
Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis is 2-7 with wins over Houston and Washington, and it has lost five straight, including 42-7 at Jacksonville on Nov. 1 and the 27-23 loss to Dallas. Kalshi traders have the Colts at 2% to make the playoffs. After Miami they visit Houston on Thursday, Nov. 19, host the New York Giants on Nov. 29, have a Week 13 bye and visit Philadelphia on Dec. 13.
Conclusion
Kalshi traders have Indianapolis as a clear favorite at 66%, with a five-game losing streak weighing against home field and a Miami team starting a quarterback with no regular-season experience. The swing factor is whether McCord can move the Dolphins' offense in his first start against a Colts defense that has been giving up points. Kalshi's prices for Dolphins vs. Colts will keep moving until the game ends.
What are the score predictions for Dolphins vs. Colts in Week 10? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the game finishing over 39.5 total points at 45%.
What is the spread for Dolphins vs. Colts in Week 10? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Colts winning by more than 3.5 points at 52%.
Who is favored to win, Dolphins or Colts? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Colts at 66% to win and the Dolphins at 34%.
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: Alexander Jonesi
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC. Kalshi is not affiliated with the National Football League.
