The Miami Dolphins open their preseason schedule on the road against the Washington Commanders Friday at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland, with kickoff at 7 p.m. ET. Kalshi's market on the game has Miami at 63% and Washington at 38% as of this writing.
Miami finished 7-10 last season, its second straight losing year, and enters Friday under a new coaching staff. Washington finished 5-12, a season shortened by injuries to quarterback Jayden Daniels and receiver Terry McLaurin. Friday's stakes are almost entirely about personnel: Miami is debuting a new starting quarterback under first-year head coach Jeff Hafley, while Washington is expected to rest most of its returning starters, Daniels included.
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Snapshot
Matchup: Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders
Kickoff: Friday, Aug. 14, 2026, 7:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD
Watch: Local broadcast
Kalshi's current number: 63% Miami Dolphins / 38% Washington Commanders (as of this writing)
Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders, Friday, August 14, 2026
Miami's edge on Kalshi's market reflects who is actually playing to win Friday rather than which roster looks stronger on paper. Washington is resting most of its returning starters, Daniels included, while Miami is putting a new starting quarterback on the field specifically to evaluate him under game conditions, giving the Dolphins the healthier lineup even amid a broader rebuild.
Miami's biggest injury-adjacent story is personnel turnover rather than a designation: the team released longtime starter Tua Tagovailoa in March 2026 and hands the job to Malik Willis, signed away from Green Bay. Washington's most significant absence is left tackle Laremy Tunsil, who is headed to surgery for a torn triceps sustained in practice this week.
The clearest story angle is Miami's new starting quarterback. Head coach Jeff Hafley confirmed Wednesday that Willis, who threw for 422 yards and five total touchdowns filling in for an injured Jordan Love in Green Bay last season, is expected to play Friday in his Dolphins debut after a joint practice in which Miami's offense struggled against Washington's front.
Washington's second angle is personnel management rather than form: most of the Commanders' starters, including Daniels, are expected to skip the game entirely or rest after the first quarter, leaving backup Marcus Mariota and rookie battles as the night's actual on-field storylines.
AFC East Division
Miami's division market is not close. Kalshi traders have the Dolphins at 3% as of this writing, last in a field led by Buffalo (55%) and New England (39%).
NFC East Division
Washington's race is tighter. Kalshi traders have the Commanders at 15% as of this writing, tied with the New York Giants for third behind Philadelphia (40%) and Dallas (34%).
Margin of victory
Kalshi traders price Miami winning by over 3.5 points at 49% as of this writing, close to even despite the wider gap on the win-probability line.
Point total
Kalshi traders have the game going over 33.5 points scored at 58% as of this writing.
The Takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
When is Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders? Friday, Aug. 14, 2026, at 7 p.m. ET.
Where is the game? Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland.
How can I watch? Local broadcast in the Miami and Washington markets.
What is Kalshi's current price? Miami Dolphins 63%, Washington Commanders 38%, as of this writing.
Miami holds the edge on Kalshi's board Friday, not on projected season-long quality but on which roster is actually taking the field to win.
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