Ecuador vs. Germany predictions: Does La Tri have one more miracle left?

Ecuador and Germany meet today at MetLife Stadium in the Group E finale, and only one of them is still playing for a place in the round of 32.

Germany has already secured top spot in Group E and a place in the knockout rounds. Ecuador has no such security. La Tri sit on one point from two matches and need a win today, plus help from Curaçao against Ivory Coast in the group's other game, to keep their tournament alive.

Heading into the match, Kalshi traders give Germany a 60% chance to win, with a tie at 21% and Ecuador at 20%.

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Germany opened the tournament with a 7-1 rout of Curaçao, with Kai Havertz scoring twice. The team followed that up with a 2-1 win over Ivory Coast, with substitute Deniz Undav netting both goals including a 94th-minute winner, Opta reported. Germany has not lost either of its first two games, marking the first time the team has won its opening two World Cup matches since 2006.

Coach Julian Nagelsmann has kept ambitions in check despite the strong start. "We have high ambitions," he said when asked whether reaching the knockout stage was cause for celebration.

Ecuador's tournament has gone the opposite direction. La Tri lost their opener 1-0 to Ivory Coast on a 90th-minute Amad Diallo goal, then were held scoreless in a 0-0 draw with Curaçao despite outshooting the tournament debutants 27 attempts to 10, per Opta. No goals have come across those first two matches, a stretch that leaves La Tri searching for answers up front.

Coach Sebastian Beccacece struck a defiant tone after the Curaçao result. "This is not over yet," he told reporters, adding that his team still had everything to fight for.

Kalshi traders give Ecuador just a 19% chance to advance from Group E, while Ivory Coast sits at 98% and Curaçao at 7%. Germany has already clinched its spot, so a win over Germany today may not even be enough on its own. La Tri also need Curaçao to upset Ivory Coast in the group's other late match for goal difference and tiebreakers to fall their way.

Beyond today's match, neither team is positioned as a tournament favorite on Kalshi. France leads the World Cup winner market at 19.9%, with Argentina at 15.3% and Spain at 13.4%.

Germany sits further down the board at 5.3%, while Ecuador is a deep long shot at 0.1%, reflecting how unlikely a tournament run looks even if La Tri survive the group today.

Kalshi markets now predict:

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^{This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading, financial, or legal advice. Any opinions or market commentary are not recommendations. Trading involves risk and you should carefully evaluate your financial situation and consult a qualified advisor before making any trading decisions. Kalshi is not affiliated with FIFA or the 2026 World Cup.}