Unless Ezra Frech makes a major error in the final weeks of Dancing with the Stars, Kalshi traders still believe he’ll be the winner of season 35.
But after a shaky Grammy night performance in episode 10, his odds in the Kalshi Dancing with the Stars Winner market have slipped to 58%, while Harry Shum Jr. has climbed to 19%.
Meanwhile, Connor Wood has inched into third at 17% followed by Amber Glenn, who has slipped into fourth place at 11%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. Kalshi is not affiliated with ABC or Dancing with the Stars. See full disclaimer below.
What happened during episode 10?
Grammy night at Dancing with the Stars ended in a shock when Jenna Dewan and her professional partner Val Chmerkovskiy were sent home. They were eliminated despite receiving a high 28/30 score and winning their dance-off challenge.
Though it may seem like Dewan and Chmerkovskiy were poised to make a late run to win it all, TV Line argued that their elimination was not a surprising turn for longtime viewers of the show. “There's a large swath of Dancing viewers who simply don't like when professional or quasi-professional dancers compete on this series as amateurs, even if they're not trained in ballroom or Latin dance,” Rebecca Luther wrote, referencing Dewan’s past life as a backup dancer for Janet Jackson.
Kalshi traders previously believed that Tatyana Ali or Maura Higgins were destined to hang up their dancing shoes in episode 10, but only Ali joined Dewan in the bottom two after receiving a 27/30 from the judges. Ali was eventually deemed safe by receiving more votes than Dewan from fans at home.
In an uncharacteristically uneven performance, Kalshi winner market leader Frech and pro partner Daniella Karagach scored a 27/30 in their individual dance, but lost their dance battle to Glenn and her pro partner Pasha Pashkov. Still, traders are confident that Frech’s dancing chops and dedicated fanbase will be enough to get him crowned the season 35 winner.
In the Nov. 17 semifinals, Frech, Shum Jr., Glenn, Ali, Higgins and Wood will compete for a spot in the Nov. 24 finale. Previous seasons have included five couples in the finals, but this could change for season 35.
Who is expected to join Frech in the finals?
Frech still leads the Kalshi finalists market at 98%, but Shum Jr. is right on his heels at 94% after three straight weeks of high scores.
Glenn is also expected to make her way into the finals at 92% odds, followed by Wood at 91%. Kalshi traders believe the fifth spot is a battle between Tatyana Ali and Maura Higgins, with Higgins having the slight edge (70% odds vs. 67% odds).
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC. Kalshi is not affiliated with ABC or Dancing with the Stars.
