Kalshi traders sharply lowered the odds of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth being impeached this year after House Republicans blocked an impeachment effort.
Kalshi's impeachment market now shows just a 4% chance that Hegseth will be impeached before the end of 2026. That represents an 82-percentage-point decline from 86% on Nov. 9, before the House vote.
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However, traders still see a substantial probability that Hegseth will be impeached in 2027. The market puts the probability of impeachment at 66% before April 2027 and 74% before July 2027.
House kills Massie’s impeachment attempt
Rep. Thomas Massie, an outgoing Republican and vocal Trump administration critic, introduced articles of impeachment against Hegseth on Monday, but House Republicans blocked the effort the following day. It was Massie’s second attempt. He first tried to force an impeachment vote in September 2026, but Speaker Mike Johnson sent the House home early for the midterm campaign recess, delaying the vote until after the election, NPR reported.
Reuters reported that the House voted 211-204 to refer the impeachment resolution to the House Judiciary Committee rather than vote directly on the charges. Because Republicans control the committee, the referral effectively stalled Massie's immediate impeachment effort. Massie cast the lone Republican vote against the measure.
The Wall Street Journal reported that some Democratic representatives, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Democratic whip Katherine Clark and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, were absent when the votes were cast. Pelosi left Washington to attend a Veterans Day event in California. Other members said they tried to make it in time for the vote but got stuck in traffic.
“While en route to the floor to oppose that motion, a traffic incident and a police-escorted bus caused a delay that resulted in the vote closing before I, along with other Members, could reach the chamber,” said Rep. Jonathan Jackson.
According to Al Jazeera, 11 Democrats missed the procedural vote. Had they shown up and voted with their party, Democrats would have had enough votes to defeat the motion and force a full House vote on impeachment.
The vote does not prevent another impeachment effort in 2027, when Democrats will control the House and Senate. Kalshi traders see a higher chance of impeachment once the new Congress is seated.
“Unlike a Senate conviction, which requires support of a two-thirds majority, impeachment in the House requires only a simple majority,” Time reported. “Democrats could therefore approve articles without Republican support if enough of their members backed the effort.”
The New York Times reported that Massie intends to continue challenging House Republicans during the rest of his time in Congress. Massie has only a few weeks left in Congress, but “he shows no signs of stopping, promising more forced votes and inconvenient moments on the floor even after his impeachment drive failed to pick up a single Republican vote.”
“I’ll give them every chance I can for them to vote for sanity before I leave,” Massie said. “And if they pass on the sanity vote, then … I mean, they’re all going to be up for election in 2028.”
Hegseth’s removal from office
Kalshi traders are also pricing the possibility that Hegseth will leave office through resignation, dismissal, or another means.
Kalshi's Hegseth departure market shows a 56% chance he will leave office before April 2027, 61% before July 2027, and 65% before October 2027.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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