Less than a month ago, National Economic Council (NEC) director Kevin Hassett was priced at more than 50¢ on Kalshi to succeed Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair.
Earlier today, after comments from President Trump, Hassett saw his chances to be named as the next Fed Chair plummet.
Hassett staying put?
Hassett now shows only an 18% chance of heading the central bank. Notably, he was still the market favorite as recently as January 2, reflecting a 41.5% predicted possibility on Kalshi.
This sharp movement comes on the heels of Trump’s latest comments, to which he gleefully told a White House crowd, "I see [Hassett] is in the audience, and I just want to thank you... I actually want to keep you where you are, if you want to know the truth."
Trump’s words were meant as praise for Hassett, and specifically, his performance leading the NEC. “Hassett is so good… I would lose you. It's a serious concern to me," Trump continued on Friday morning.
Who will Trump name as the next Federal Reserve Chair?
As Hassett’s odds went into a free fall, New York attorney Kevin Warsh saw his chances balloon.
Traders drove Warsh’s chances of being named Fed Chair to 60%, an all-time high. Warsh’s previous high point was 58¢, occurring last May. However, on Christmas Day, his odds were as low as 24%.
Warsh was a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011. He was originally nominated by then-President George W. Bush. Notably, Trump has previously spoken favorably of Warsh, telling the Wall Street Journal last month that he was a frontrunner.
Per Kalshi, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller (14%) is the only other candidate that boasts a price above 10¢. A former professor of economics at Indiana University, Waller’s odds reached as high as 42.1% last summer. His price has moved sporadically over the past 60 days.
When will Trump announce a new Fed Chair?
With 2026 off and running, many are speculating on exactly when Trump will make his Fed Chair nomination. Kalshi’s traders price in an 11% chance that it will occur before January 22. There’s also a 72% chance it happens this month.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now forecast…
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