With Chairman Powell’s current term set to expire in May 2026, his cantankerous relationship with President Trump has caused many to speculate that the president could name a new chair relatively soon. That same speculation is causing major volatility in Kalshi’s Fed Chair Nominee market.
Christopher Waller has now overtaken Kevin Warsh as the second most likely candidate to earn the nomination. But despite the recent fluctuations, traders still price Kevin Hassett as a slight favorite to be Trump’s next Fed pick.
Who will Trump name as the next Federal Reserve Chair?
Trump has expressed varying opinions on the matter, which has caused the market to react sporadically. As mentioned above, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett (52¢) is currently the most likely pick, and has been since September 19.
However, Trump’s recent comments to The Wall Street Journal led many to believe that Kevin Warsh would be his choice. Warsh, a Republican attorney from New York, previously served on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011.
“Yes, I think he is,” the president responded when questioned last Friday regarding Warsh being the top candidate to succeed Powell as Chairman. That sent shockwaves among Kalshi’s traders, and Warsh saw his probability climb to as high as 49.4% on Tuesday. Previously, Warsh was trading as high as 58¢ last May.
This movement also followed Hassett’s appearance on Face the Nation on Sunday, wherein he insisted that Trump “would have no weight” in setting rates for the Federal Open Market Committee. Since then, Warsh’s chances had slid to 23%. Meanwhile, Federal Governor Christopher Waller’s chances have seen a recent surge.
Waller, a former economics professor at Indiana University, was trading at just four cents in this market as recently as December 11. Currently, traders give him an 18% chance to become Federal Chair.
Waller spoke Wednesday to the Yale School of Management, saying, "I still think we're probably… 50 to 100 basis points off of neutral," implying more cuts were possible.
“We just can steadily kind of bring the policy rate down towards neutral,” Waller added.
Secondary Fed Chair Markets
Earlier in the year, many speculated that the current Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, could be ousted before completion of his term. But for now, Kalshi’s traders have “Yes” priced at just 15¢. That is noticeably down from November 2, when Powell’s chances of being removed prior to May 2026 were priced at 24.8%.
Powell’s notable disagreements with Trump have the public wondering if he will remain on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Currently, Kalshi’s traders are displaying a 77% possibility that Powell will be out as a Federal Governor by August 2026. That figure has risen over the past month, as he was trading at 64¢ back on November 14.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now forecast:
Trump to nominate Kevin Hassett as next Federal Chair: 52%
Jerome Powell to be out as Fed Chairman before May 2026: 15%
Jerome Powell to be out as Fed Governor before August 2026: 77%
Follow Gabriel Santiago on Instagram: @ByGabrielSantiago
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.