The 2026 FIFA World Cup quarterfinals open Thursday (4 p.m. ET) in Foxborough, Massachusetts, with one of the tournament's most anticipated clashes: France vs. Morocco.
Four years after Les Bleus ended Morocco's historic run in Qatar, the sides meet again, this time with the Atlas Lions no longer a romantic underdog story but a genuine contender with a 34-match unbeaten run and a semifinal of their own to avenge.
Kalshi traders have France as heavy favorites to advance, but Morocco has spent this entire tournament proving the market wrong.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
What's at stake
The winner advances to the World Cup semifinals on Tuesday, July 14, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, where they'll face the winner of Friday's Spain vs. Belgium quarterfinal.
For France, a win would put them in the semifinals for the third straight World Cup — a feat only Germany and Brazil have achieved. For Morocco, advancing would mean becoming the first African team to ever reach a World Cup semifinal twice, and putting a final within reach.
Ahead of today’s game, Kalshi traders give France a 78% chance to advance past Morocco and into the semifinals. Morocco checks in at 23%.
France's path here
France topped Group I without dropping a point, winning all three matches and outscoring opponents 10-2. Kylian Mbappé drove much of that damage. His seven goals lead the Golden Boot race alongside Erling Haaland, one behind Lionel Messi.
The round of 32 brought a 3-0 dismantling of Sweden, with Mbappé bagging a brace. Then came the round of 16, where Paraguay frustrated Les Bleus for 69 minutes before a VAR-awarded penalty from Mbappé sealed a gritty 1-0 win. It was the first time this France side was truly tested, and they passed. Not pretty, but decisive.
Michael Olise leads the tournament in assists with five, and France's front four of Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, Olise, and Bradley Barcola remain the most dangerous attacking unit left in the competition.
The one injury concern: Aurélien Tchouaméni is doubtful after sitting out the Paraguay match with an adductor issue, with Manu Koné expected to fill in if he can't go.
Morocco's path here
Morocco dropped points only once: a draw with Brazil in the group stage, before eliminating the Netherlands on penalties in a dramatic round of 32 comeback. Trailing in stoppage time in Monterrey, a Chemsdine Talbi cross was headed in by Issa Diop to force extra time, and the Atlas Lions held their nerve in the shootout.
The round of 16 was far more comfortable: a 3-0 win over Canada, with Azzedine Ounahi scoring twice and substitute Soufiane Rahimi adding a third late. That result means Ounahi has rediscovered his goal-scoring touch at exactly the right time, ending an 11-game scoreless run at World Cup level.
Morocco's biggest loss heading into this match is Ismael Saibari, who scored in all three group games and was the Atlas Lions' most dangerous central threat. He came off in the 22nd minute against Canada with a hamstring injury and won't recover in time.
Rahimi is the most likely replacement up front. Achraf Hakimi (15 chance creations, the most by any African defender in a single World Cup edition) and Brahim Díaz (four assists this tournament) remain Morocco's most dangerous outlets.
(For more on how Morocco got here, see our Canada vs. Morocco round of 16 preview.)
Reach the final odds
France is also a 53% favorite to reach the World Cup final on July 19 at MetLife Stadium. Morocco reaching that same stage sits at 8%, reflecting both the margin in this match and the difficulty of the path ahead if they were to pull the upset.
The bigger picture: tournament winner odds
France leads the outright World Cup winner market at 33%, more than double any other remaining side. Argentina sits at 19%, Spain at 19%, England at 16%, and Norway at 6%. Morocco's chances of lifting the trophy stand at 3%.
The takeaway:
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This article was generated with AI assistance and reviewed by Kalshi's editorial team. It is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial or trading advice. Prediction market trading involves risk. Past market probabilities are not indicative of future results. Please trade responsibly.
