Two of the brightest stars in American tennis will meet on Monday with a spot in the quarterfinal round of the US Open on the line.
Scheduled to start at 7:00pm ET in Arthur Ashe Stadium, former US Open champion Coco Gauff will take on Iva Jovic, an 18-year-old California native that has rapidly climbed the ranks to world No. 14 in her brief time on tour.
Gauff, who entered the tournament as the No. 4 seed, has yet to drop a set in New York.
Meanwhile, Jovic is coming off a thrilling three-set victory over Alex Eala and now has an opportunity to clinch her first ever US Open quarterfinal appearance.
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Gauff vs. Jovic odds favor the more experienced player
Kalshi traders currently give Gauff a 74% chance to knock off Jovic on Monday night, compared to just 28% for her opponent.
The pair will collide for just the second time in their careers and first time on a hard court. Earlier this year, Gauff defeated Jovic in three sets at the Italian Open, though it was the teenager who took the first set on the red clay.
Their paths to the fourth round have been similar, but Gauff’s road has been more straightforward. She was pushed to a tiebreak during the second set of her second round match against Paula Badosa, and needed to rally from a break deficit in round three against Cristina Bucsa, but she found victory both times. She has not lost a set all tournament.
Jovic on the other hand was pushed to the brink in her third round encounter with Alex Eala, overcoming a 4-2 deficit in the final set to advance to the fourth round. The young American also needed to climb back from a double-break down in her first set of the tournament against Magdalena Frech.
Those intense battles have meant considerably more time on court for Jovic, who has needed more than seven hours of play to clinch her fourth round berth. Gauff on the other hand has played less than five hours in three matches, giving her the distinct advantage in time on court.
Gauff’s US Open title odds climbing, but Sabalenka still the favorite
As she has made her way into the fourth round, Coco Gauff’s title odds have risen to 19%.
The former champion was priced as low as 7% in August, but after establishing herself as the winner in Cincinnati and rounding into form on the hard courts, her odds have made her firmly the second favorite behind two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka.
Like Gauff, Sabalenka has been flawless this tournament, not dropping a single set during her first four matches. After clinching a spot in the quarterfinals, the Belarusian’s odds have risen to 30%, making her the clear favorite ahead of Gauff and Iga Swiatek (7%).
But Sabalenka will face a stiff test in the quarterfinals, drawing Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova. As of Monday morning, Kalshi traders make Sabalenka a 70% favorite in the matchup.
If she hoists the trophy again in New York, it will be for the third consecutive year. The last time she lost in New York was in the 2023 US Open final, to none other than Coco Gauff.
As of Monday, Kalshi traders make the two the most likely final qualifiers, signaling that a rematch could be in store.
Pegula, Rybakina, and other contenders still in the draw
While Gauff and Sabalenka headline the conversation about this year’s US Open champion, a dangerous cohort of contenders are still alive in the women’s singles draw.
American Jessica Pegula had the fortune of avoiding a loaded bottom half of the draw, where she escaped needing to play Gauff, Swiatek, or other contenders like Elena Rybakina, Naomi Osaka, and Mirra Andreeva. The only problem? She will need to get through Sabalenka in a semifinal matchup if she wishes to contend for the final.
Nevertheless, traders make her the fourth highest favorite on the board, priced at 13% as of Monday. Aside from a shaky opening set in her third round encounter with Leylah Fernandez, Pegula has been clinical in her time on court, advancing to the quarterfinals with relative ease where she will take on another American, Emma Navarro. Pegula has won all four of their previous matchups and is a 79% favorite to advance to a potential semifinal clash with Sabalenka.
In the bottom half of the draw, a loaded field will fight for the right to play in a potential final matchup with Pegula or Sabalenka. Roland Garros champion Mirra Andreeva (6%) has not dropped a set yet, live-ranked world No. 1 Elena Rybakina (7%) appears to be fine after an injury scare in Cincinnati, and two-time US Open champion Naomi Osaka (4%) has been battle-hardened after a tight contest in her last round.
Any one of the trio could present a significant challenge to Gauff and Swiatek, the favorites to advance from the bottom half of the draw.
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Image Source: Ben Solomon, USTA
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