After a thrilling tournament thus far, we have reached the finals of the 114th Australian Open. And Kalshi traders have priced in two clear favorites.
The men’s singles bracket has whittled down to Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) and Novak Djokovic (SRB), with a match scheduled for Sunday.
As for the women’s singles, Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) and Elena Rybakina (KAZ) will face off early Saturday.
Here’s a look at what Kalshi’s tennis markets are forecasting for the upcoming action.
This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.
WTA top-ranked Aryna Sabalenka and No. 5 Elena Rybakina are set to play on Saturday, January 31 at 3:30 a.m. ET. As always, Rod Laver Arena will host the championship bid.
As of Friday afternoon, Sabalenka is listed for 61¢ on Kalshi. That leaves Rybakina with a 39% likelihood of winning her first Australian Open title.
Notably, Sabalenka entered this year’s tournament in Melbourne with championship wins here in 2023 and 2024. That left the 27-year-old Belarusian as the opening favorite for the 2026 AO. On Kalshi, she was priced at 32¢ in this market just three weeks ago.
In the current tourney, Sabalenka has not lost a set over six matches. She made quick work of Iva Jovic (USA) in the quarterfinals before dismissing Elina Svitolina (UKR) in the semis. Arguably, Sabalenka might be at the pinnacle of her game right now.
Rybakina reached the AO finals as recently as 2023. However, she was defeated by Sabalenka in three sets. Fast-forward to now, and the 26-year-old Kazakhstani earned her rematch the hard way. Rybakina defeated Iga Swiatek (POL) in the quarterfinals. From there, she bested Jessica Pegula (USA) in an entertaining semifinal round.
Both Sabalenka and Rybakina stand at six feet even. Head-to-head, Sabalenka holds a narrow advantage, going 8-6 (57.1%) in 14 matches versus Rybakina. Still, Rybakina has shown incredible movement in the Australian Open title market. On January 12, Kalshi had Rybakina available for trade at just eight cents.
In the men’s game, ATP top-ranked Carlos Alcaraz and No. 4 Novak Djokovic will square off at Rod Laver Arena for the championship on Sunday, February 1 at 3:30 a.m. ET. Djokovic has more men’s singles titles at the AO than anyone, boasting 10. Meanwhile, Alcaraz has never won it all in Melbourne.
Kalshi’s traders are giving the 22-year-old Alcaraz a 74% chance to defeat the 38-year-old Djokovic. Of course, a win here for Alcaraz would make him the youngest player to complete the career grand slam; he’s won multiple championships at the US Open, French Open and Wimbledon.
Alcaraz began the 2026 AO with much higher title chances compared to his Serbian elder. On January 12, the Spaniard was priced at 36¢. At the same time, Djokovic is trading at 7¢.
As in other years, “The Joker” has come on strong in Melbourne. Djokovic trounced Lorenzo Musetti (ITA) in three sets prior to outlasting Jannik Sinner (ITA) — the Aussie Open’s two-time reigning champion — in the semis. The latter match was vintage Joker. He was down 3-2 before rallying to defeat Sinner in each of the last two sets.
This is Alcaraz’s first appearance in the Australian Open finals. Ahead of 2026, Alcaraz had never advanced past the quarterfinals. He scored recent victories over Alex De Minaur (AUS) and Alexander Zverev (GER) to advance to the title spot.
Djokovic (6-foot-2) is slightly taller than Alcaraz (6 feet). Joker also holds a 5-4 head-to-head advantage against the younger Alcaraz. However, in head-to-head championship matches, the Spaniard is 2-1 versus Djokovic. Alcaraz has twice beaten Djokovic in the Wimbledon finals.
The takeaway
Per Kalshi, Sabalenka is trading at 61¢ to take down Rybakina for her third career title at the Australian Open. This is Sabalenka’s fourth consecutive trip to the Australian Open finals. Expect the action to be intense, as these two met in this same spot just three years ago.
Across the way, Alcaraz has a 74% chance to win his first AO championship this weekend. Fittingly, he’ll have to go through Djokovic, who is regarded as the king of the Aussie Open. Overall, this will be the fourth head-to-head title match of the past four years between two men.
Kalshi markets now forecast:
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The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.