Coco Gauff and Alexander Zverev begin their US Open title pursuits on Tuesday night as heavy favorites in their opening round matches according to Kalshi traders.
Gauff, a US Open champion in 2023, will face Turkey’s Zeynep Sonmez in the first match in Arthur Ashe Stadium during Tuesday’s night session. Zverev will follow against Italy’s Lorenzo Sonego.
Yet, while their opening round matchups are expected to be relatively straightforward, Kalshi traders suggest both players have bigger opportunities ahead in New York.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is a proud partner of the US Open.
Gauff enters US Open among title favorites
Gauff enters Tuesday’s match against Sonmez with plenty of momentum after snagging the Cincinnati Open crown. On the hard courts in Ohio she found her form, registering straight-set victories over world No. 3 Jessica Pegula and No. 11 Marta Kostyuk in the process.
Sonmez on the other hand has notched only one win in each of her last two events. Entering the week as the No. 53 player in the world, Sonmez has only played in the main draw at the US Open one time, making it to the second round before falling to Kostyuk last year.
As of Tuesday morning, Kalshi traders price Gauff at 95% to make it through to the next round of the competition where she would play the winner of the match between Daria Kasatkina and Paula Badosa.
But traders do not expect Gauff to stop there, pricing her to advance well beyond that matchup. Prior to her match on Tuesday Kalshi traders make her current odds to win the event 19%, up 3% since the draw was released last Thursday.
Gauff's odds trail only tournament favorite and two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka, who found a quick victory in her opening round match. Kalshi traders currently give Sabalenka a slight edge, pricing her at 24% to win a third consecutive US Open title.
Because Gauff and Sabalenka are on opposite halves of the draw, the only potential matchup between the two would be in the finals. The pair met there in 2023 with Gauff edging out the Belarussian in three sets to claim her first Grand Slam victory. Since that match, Sabalenka has not lost in New York.
Zverev a massive favorite in opening match, but title odds stagnant after Alcaraz returns
Roland Garros champion and world No. 2 Alexander Zverev is an equally overwhelming favorite in his return to New York, priced at 94% to find victory over Lorenzo Sonego on Tuesday night.
The pair have squared off six times previously, most recently in Beijing in 2025, with the German walking away victorious on every occasion. Should he find a victory, Zverev will face Quentin Halys in the second round.
However, while Zverev is expected to breeze into the second round, odds for the tournament’s top seed to take the title have stagnated in recent days, holding around 23% as of Tuesday morning.
Kalshi traders price Zverev there despite the early exits of Novak Djokovic and Arthur Fils, who held the third- and fourth-best odds to win the tournament shortly after the draw was released.
Instead, tournament favorite and defending champion Carlos Alcaraz has been repriced higher by Kalshi traders, currently priced around 36% to win the title now that Djokovic and Fils have both been dumped from his half of the draw.
Alcaraz returned to action on Monday after more than four months off and earned a straight-set victory over Roman Safiullin in just over two hours on court, seemingly answering any questions traders may have had about his forehand potency or whether he would be rusty after such an extended layoff.
While Zverev had the better path to the finals after the draw was released, the softening of the bottom half has cleared the way for Alcaraz to defend his crown.
To do so, he may have to knock off Zverev though. The pair are currently priced by Kalshi traders as the most likely to qualify for the finals, offering fans a rematch of the 2024 Roland Garros finals. In that match, Alcaraz came back from a 2-1 set deficit to win an epic five-set battle.
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