Georgia & North Carolina Senate Races 2026: Polls & Odds

Two Southern states that supported Republican President Donald Trump in 2024 could help determine which party controls the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterm elections.

In Georgia, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is seeking reelection against Republican Mike Collins. Meanwhile, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is hoping to flip North Carolina’s Republican Senate seat against former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley. 

As Election Day nears, Democrats have become increasingly favored to earn Senate control from the Republican Party that enters the midterms with a 53-47 Senate majority, meaning this cycle the results in Georgia and North Carolina may play a role that extends beyond their state borders. 

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The 2026 Georgia and North Carolina Senate elections will take place on November 3 alongside the rest of the midterm elections nationwide. 

Considered political battlegrounds, the two states present different challenges for Democrats and Republicans. 

In Georgia, Jon Ossoff is defending a Democratic-held seat after winning his first Senate bid in a January 2021 runoff election. While President Trump took the state in the 2024 presidential election, Ossoff currently leads his Republican opponent in recent polling data. 

North Carolina presents an opportunity for Democrats and a challenge for the GOP. Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is not seeking reelection, creating an open-seat contest between Democrat Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley.

Like Georgia, Trump carried North Carolina in 2024, but Cooper also leads current polling. 

Democrats enter the midterms seeking a net gain of four Senate seats to secure a 51-seat majority, as Republican Vice President JD Vance would break a 50-50 Senate tie. 

That makes these particular contests important to the balance of power, as an Ossoff victory would preserve an existing Democratic seat, while a Cooper victory would add a seat currently controlled by the Republicans. 

If both Democrats win, as is currently favored by Kalshi traders, Democrats would still need to gain three additional Republican-held seats to secure a majority. 

Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff is seeking a second term in the Senate after winning a closely watched runoff in January 2021. 

A former investigative documentary filmmaker, Sen. Ossoff has established a national profile and has made fighting corruption, making housing and healthcare more accessible and affordable, and upgrading Georgia’s statewide infrastructure key campaign priorities. 

His campaign’s fundraising operation has been incredibly successful relative to his peers, raising more than $131 million, more than any other senator running for election this cycle, according to data from the Federal Election Commission. 

On the other hand, Collins has only raised $10.2 million, a fraction of the funds Ossoff has pulled in, ranking No. 40 among those running for Senate this year. The Georgia entrepreneur and representative is endorsed by President Trump, and has centered his campaign on cutting wasteful spending and reducing regulations imposed on small business owners. 

The two recently debated important political topics like election security, the war in Iran, and the cost of living ahead of the midterm elections. 

The race in North Carolina features candidates with different political backgrounds. 

Cooper previously served two terms as governor of the state and four terms as state attorney general. His campaign is focused on making things more affordable for everyday Americans, including healthcare, childcare and the cost of food and groceries. 

Whatley’s political background includes time leading the Presidential Transition’s Energy, Environment, and Agriculture teams in 2016 and serving as the Chairman for the Republican National Committee in 2024. The candidate, who is endorsed by President Trump, aims to make North Carolina safe again, fight illegal immigration, and promote an America First agenda. 

Their respective campaigns also differ in fundraising amounts, with Cooper’s campaign having pulled in more than $47 million while the Whatley campaign has only raised $13.4 million.

Understanding the Georgia and North Carolina Senate forecasts requires distinguishing between a few different measures, including polling, expert race ratings, and prediction markets. 

Recent polls, which measure voter preferences among a set of surveyed respondents, favor Sen. Ossoff and Cooper rather than their opponents from the GOP.

A polling update from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and University of Georgia gives Ossoff an eight-point advantage over Mike Collins, while polling averages aggregated by Kalshi show a slightly larger gap, at +8.3 in the incumbent’s favor. 

In North Carolina, the polls favor the Democratic candidate, Roy Cooper, even more. A poll from Elon University gave the Democrat a 13-point advantage, though polling averages gathered by Kalshi show an advantage closer to 9.8 points. 

It’s not just the polls giving a nod to the Democrats in the two races. The latest update from Cook Political Report’s Senate race ratings classifies both contests as “likely Democratic.” The report uses ratings such as “solid” or “lean” to classify the standing of each race ahead of the election, with “likely” being the second strongest rating. 

While that forecast indicates an advantage for Dems in the contests, it does not guarantee a result. 

In line with polling and expert forecasts, Kalshi traders make both Democratic candidates the favorites in their respective races. 

Ahead of Election Day, Jon Ossoff is trading at 95.6% in the Georgia Senate race market, while Mike Collins trades at just 4.4%. 

In North Carolina the odds favor the Democrat even more, with Roy Cooper trading at 96.1% while Michael Whatley trades at just 3.9%. 

These trading percentages represent a market-implied probability that the event occurs according to Kalshi traders, but much like the polling and expert forecasts, do not guarantee the result. For example, a Yes contract trading at $0.75 generally represents a 75% implied probability that the outcome occurs. 

With Election Day approaching, several factors could influence the Georgia and North Carolina Senate results. 

President Trump’s standing with voters could be a determining factor in both races. The President’s approval rating hit a new low according to recent polls, which show that a large portion of Americans disapprove of the way his administration has handled the economy and the war in Iran. 

Those issues, as well as inflation and higher fuel prices, have created challenges for Republicans in competitive states. 

In Georgia, Sen. Ossoff has criticized the administration’s economic and foreign policies, while Collins has defended Trump’s broader agenda. Meanwhile in North Carolina, Whatley has similarly sought to connect his candidacy to Trump’s policy priorities. 

The outcomes could also hinge on voters who do not consistently vote in support of Democrats or the GOP.

In Georgia, Atlanta and its surrounding suburbs remain especially important voter pools. Counties like Cobb and Gwinnett have contributed to Democratic statewide victories, but Republican support in rural communities remains strong. 

ActiVote data from October 20 shows Ossoff leading among suburban and urban voters, while Collins leads among rural voters and those aged 65 and older. 

In North Carolina, a similar contest between suburban and unaffiliated voters, especially in Charlotte and Raleigh, emerges. Roy Cooper has a history of winning statewide elections, having earned multiple terms as attorney general and governor, but voter turnout and preferences can still change before November 3.

The Georgia and North Carolina Senate races illustrate two different challenges facing Democrats and Republicans in the 2026 midterms. Democrats are aiming to retain a competitive seat and flip one belonging to Republicans, while Republicans hope to accomplish the opposite. 

Recent polling, forecasts, and prediction market odds favor the Dems over the GOP candidates in these races, with Sen. Ossoff and Cooper holding substantial advantages in Kalshi markets.

With Senate control potentially hanging on a handful of key races like Texas, Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, and Iowa, unexpected developments in either state could reshape the entire national political picture.

Interested voters and traders can follow the Georgia Senate race, the North Carolina Senate race, and Senate control markets in real-time on Kalshi throughout Election Day. 

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Image source: Elijah Nouvelage

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