It seems “The Greek Freak” is ready for some new surroundings.
Two-time Most Valuable Player Giannis Antetokounmpo has expressed his willingness to move on from Milwaukee after 13.5 years with the team.
But where will he end up? Let’s see what Kalshi’s traders are saying on the matter. Keep in mind, as stated in the rules summary, this market will close by February 6, 2026.
Staying put?
“Cream City” has played to an 18-27 record this season. As such, Kalshi traders have Milwaukee priced at just one cent in the pro basketball championship market.
The 31-year-old Antetokounmpo would like to play for a contender while he is still in his physical prime. Does that mean he will be dealt away prior to the looming trade deadline (Feb. 5)?
Antetokounmpo is currently tagged with a 41% likelihood to either remain in Milwaukee or retire by the upcoming deadline. That option is still the market favorite but has dropped significantly since January 13. On that date, “Milwaukee/retires” was priced at 91¢ on Kalshi.
Still scoring as well as he ever has, Antetokounmpo has produced 28.0 PPG, which is a top-10 clip in 2025-26. He has also converted 39.5% of his three-point attempts; that would be a career-best if the campaign ended today.
With Doc Rivers at the helm, Milwaukee is under its sixth head coach during Antetokounmpo’s tenure. Incidentally, most basketball superstars are not fond of leadership turnover. To make matters worse, Antetokounmpo and Rivers have not always meshed.
Notably, Antetokounmpo has been out with an ankle issue since January 23. He has missed 15 total games thus far. Subsequently, Milwaukee feels pretty far off from their championship moment in 2021.
Golden state of mind
In an effort to squeeze another title run out of superstar Stephen Curry, Golden State has been more than curious about acquiring Antetokounmpo. The timing and the fit seem ideal, especially with six-time All-Star forward Jimmy Butler going down with an ACL injury.
Golden State has a 26% chance to land Antetokounmpo prior to February 6. Entering Thursday, the Dubs are 27-22, which is good enough for the eighth spot in the West. Obviously, Antetokounmpo would be a tremendous shot in the arm for this ailing squad from the Bay Area.
In the championship market, Kalshi has Golden State priced at just four cents. That will certainly be a stock to monitor should general manager Mike Dunleavy orchestrate a trade for Antetokounmpo.
Taking talents to South Beach?
Miami, showing a 12% likelihood on Kalshi, is another possibility to be Antetokounmpo’s next team ahead of this year’s trade deadline. With Antetokounmpo hailing from Greece, he’d probably be thrilled about heading to a high-profile location like South Beach, and Miami will put its best offer forward to make that happen.
Like Golden State, Miami is positioned eighth in its respective conference, and could absolutely use a player of Antetokounmpo’s well-rounded skill set. The team shows a 114.9 offensive rating (19th), which would greatly improve with Giannis. Standing at 6-foot-11, he would instantly supply Miami with much-needed size.
Miami has only a one-percent chance to win this year’s pro basketball title, per Kalshi. However, if team president Pat Riley can work his magic, Antetokounmpo would provide a major boost.
The field
Besides Golden State and Miami, New York (14%) and Minnesota (5%) are also viewed as potential landing spots for Antetokounmpo.
His older brother, Thanasis, was drafted by New York, so that would present a blip of familiarity. From there, NBA Marc Stein claims there is a real possibility that the Wolves trade for Giannis, citing an interest to play with star guard Anthony Edwards.
New York and Minnesota are in better playoff positioning when compared to Golden State and Miami (and certainly Antetokounmpo’s current home of Milwaukee). Should Giannis join either New York or Minnesota, that team will instantly be viewed as a title frontrunner.
The takeaway
Antetokounmpo’s recent comments and body language suggest he is ready to start his next chapter in another locale. Obviously, many franchises will reach out to Milwaukee in hopes of striking a deal. Still, Kalshi’s traders are finding it more likely he stays put this season. Remember: Giannis will become an unrestricted agent following the 2026-27 campaign.
If Antetokounmpo is shipped off by next Thursday, Golden State is viewed as the most probable suitor. The need, willingness and capital are all there. Regardless, don’t be shocked if Miami or New York slides in with a stronger offer.
Still, it seems more likely Milwaukee would want Antetokounmpo out of the Eastern Conference if they can help it.
Kalshi markets now forecast:
Giannis Antetokounmpo’s next team (prior to Feb. 6):
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The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.