Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr and Texas quarterback Arch Manning are separated by just 2 points on Kalshi's Heisman Trophy market. Carr is the current favorite at 12%, followed closely by Manning at 10%.
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CJ Carr
Notre Dame hasn't produced a Heisman Trophy winner since Tim Brown took home the award in 1987, but Carr could have a chance to end that drought.
Sports Illustrated's Jared Shlensky wrote that Carr could be poised for a breakout season, calling him “the new face of the program” who fits the profile of a potential Heisman winner.
“Carr completed 66.6% of his passes, threw for 2,741 yards and 24 touchdowns, rushed for three scores, and only threw six interceptions,” Shlensky wrote.
The Athletic's David Ubben also selected Carr as his “Round 1, Pick 1” choice for this year’s Heisman Trophy for some of the same reasons.
“I saw more than just flashes last year in between handoffs to a stellar duo of backs, but he’ll be shouldering more of the offense this year,” Ubben wrote. “He’s ready. His mental processing on top of his physical attributes has everyone raving.”
Arch Manning
Carr may be the frontrunner on Kalshi, but many traders are bullish on the Longhorns’ Arch Manning, as well.
Sports Illustrated's Aaron Raley wrote that the Longhorns will start the season ranked in the top five of the AP Top 25. He also noted that Manning is in the running to win the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award.
“Last year, a mountain of pressure was placed on the signal caller out of New Orleans to start the season, already being named a Heisman Trophy favorite and leading a preseason-ranked No. 1 Texas Longhorns team against the defending national champions in his first away game, and he didn’t even do badly,” Raley wrote.
The Athletic's Chris Vannini also noted that Manning rebounded from a rough start to the 2025 season to put himself back in the Heisman conversation.
“I’m surprised Arch made it this far,” Vannini wrote. “After a rough start to 2025, Manning was electric to close last season, with 20 total touchdowns and two interceptions in the last six games. Now he adds future NFL receiver Cam Coleman from Auburn and what should be a better running game. Texas’ schedule is one of the toughest in the country, but that also creates a lot of opportunities to impress.”
With Carr coming off a strong debut season and Manning carrying momentum from his late-season surge, traders currently see little separating the two quarterbacks in the Heisman race.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
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