This Sunday, April 12, voters in Hungary will head to the polls in a critical election that could reshape politics in Europe for decades. Longtime Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is in perhaps the toughest fight of his political career, facing down the real prospect of losing power for the first time in 16 years.
Orbán and his conservative Fidesz Party took control in 2010. Over time, they took steps to consolidate their power, including changing the nation’s electoral system, stacking the courts with friendly judges, and cementing control over the media. Many commentators have described the nation as now having a form of illiberal democracy, with the European Parliament classifying Hungary as a “hybrid regime of electoral autocracy.” In such systems, elections are held, but are often neither free nor fair.
While in office, Orbán has been notable for pursuing nationalistic, anti-immigrant policies, including a strict policy toward migrants and a fence along its southern border to limit illegal immigration. He has also cast himself as Europe’s defender of traditional Christian family values and decried the rest of the West’s multiculturalism.
But Orbán may be most notable for his pro-Russian stance and history of cozying up to Vladimir Putin, a position made even more stark in the wake of the Ukraine war.
After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, most European nations cut off supplies of Russian oil. However, Hungary was one of few nations to actually increase those supplies, leading many other leaders to accuse Orbán of helping financially support Russia in the conflict. He has also frequently vetoed pro-Ukraine proposals in the EU, including most recently blocking a $90 billion loan for Ukraine in March 2026.
The competitiveness of this election is in large part driven by the unusual unity of Orbán’s opposition. In past elections, a fractured field of opposition parties had failed to credibly challenge Fidesz. But this time around, the anti-Orbán forces have consolidated around 45-year-old Péter Magyar, a lawyer and former Fidesz member.
Magyar was previously married to Judit Varga, Orbán’s justice minister, who resigned when it was revealed that Hungary’s president (and ally of the prime minister) had pardoned an accomplice in a child sexual abuse case. Magyar soon founded the center-right Tisza party, which won 30% of the vote just four months after being formed in the June 2024 European Parliament elections, second only to Fidesz.
In this campaign, Magyar has focused more on domestic issues than foreign policy, highlighting issues that affect voters’ everyday lives like Hungary’s stagnant economy, low wages, and concerns over the state healthcare system. He has also made a crusade against what he describes as widespread public corruption a centerpiece of his attacks against Orbán, pledging to clean up the public procurement process and restore the independence of the judiciary and media.
On international affairs, Magyar has vowed to restore Hungary’s pro-EU stance and lessen its intake of Russian energy. Orbán, meanwhile, has primarily run a populist campaign, painting the election as a choice between being dragged into the Ukraine war or maintaining peace.
Parliamentary Elections
So far, Magyar’s message seems to be breaking through. He leads in most independent polls, often by double digits (government-aligned polling still shows Orbán ahead).
Markets seem to believe the independent polls, with traders on Kalshi giving Magyar’s Tisza party a 77% chance of winning the most seats in the parliament.
Orbán was recently paid a visit from Vice President J.D. Vance on the eve of the election in hopes of boosting his numbers. But as the chart below demonstrates, it may have done more harm than good.
Next Prime Minister
However, the election is far from over. Some of the electoral reforms passed by Orbán have made it easier for Fidesz to win districts in its primarily rural base. Orbán also has the power to encourage the mostly pro-Fidesz Hungarians living in nearby countries to vote, and can use policy to incentivize loyal voter groups such as pensioners.
If the result is close, Orbán could contest the result and refuse to concede, leading to a prolonged legal fight at home and in the EU. That could explain why Magyar’s chances to be the prime minister of Hungary are at 71%, slightly lower than the chance his party wins the most seats.
TISZA Seats
But traders actually think that Magyar’s party could be on track for a sizable victory, perhaps alleviating that possibility. They forecast Tisza to win just north of 120 seats in the Hungarian parliament. While that’s still short of a two-thirds supermajority in the 199-seat chamber, it is far more than the 100 needed for a majority.
The impact of such a victory would be seismic, dramatically shifting the direction of Hungary after a decade and a half of Fidesz and Orbán. A Magyar victory could help ease EU-Hungary relations and reposition Hungary on the path to a more democratic future.
It’s important to note, though, that Magyar would still be a relatively conservative leader. His party is a member of the center-right coalition in Europe, and he has expressed support for keeping some of Orbán’s policies on hot-button issues such as immigration.
But it’s the possibility of a non-Fidesz victory – and proof that power can be transferred peacefully in Hungary – that the world is watching most.
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