Second time's a charm? Odds of SpaceX Starship 12 launching today are at 70%.

SpaceX scrubbed its 12th Starship V3 launch on Thursday, but traders seem to like the odds on today’s second attempt.

The market shows a price of 70% that the 12th launch will happen before Saturday, 75% before Sunday, and 90% before June 1.

^{For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.}

The odds of yesterday’s launch reached as high as 96% before the mission was postponed. SpaceX came within 40 seconds of launching its Starship V3, but issues with the launch tower caused the scrub.

Ars Technica reported that the weather was clear and everything appeared ready for launch, but "there were five holds in all before SpaceX called off the launch attempt." SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk attributed the scrubbed launch to "a hydraulic pin that failed to retract on an umbilical arm connecting the launch tower to the rocket."

The scrub hasn't affected markets monitoring the total number of SpaceX launches.

The market for the total number of launches in May saw a small bump to 11.9, with a price of 13% that the total exceeds 12 for the month.

The market for the total number of launches this year saw a small drop in prices. The forecast fell to 150 launches for the year, with a 32% chance of exceeding 160, 72% chance of exceeding 140, and 95% chance of exceeding 120.

Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

^{This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}