SpaceX is scheduled to launch its 12th Starship V3 mission today, and traders think there's a decent chance it actually happens on time.
The market for the 12th SpaceX Starship launch shows a 67% chance the launch happens before May 22, with prices of 77% before May 23 and 86% before May 24 — suggesting most traders expect it to lift off either today or tomorrow.
The Starship V3 megarocket
Today’s launch of the Starship V3 megarocket is a key one for SpaceX because NASA hopes to use the ship for its Artemis moon missions.
Space.com reported that the launch’s 90-minute window is scheduled to start at 6:30 pm Eastern.
The 408-foot-tall rocket is the biggest and most powerful version in SpaceX’s megarocket fleet. It’s powered by 33 new Raptor 3 engines, “which provides more heft, and a far more streamlined design, than its predecessors.” The V3 is also fitted with three grid fins that allow it to steer its way back to Earth so the rocket can be recovered and reused for future missions.
Total May Launches
With just over a week left in the month, traders appear to think SpaceX's launch cadence is largely baked in.
The number of SpaceX launches in May is currently forecast at 11.8, with a price of 6% that the total exceeds 12 for the month. Today's Starship launch, if it goes ahead, would count toward that May total, but even with it, the market sees little chance the monthly count pushes past 12.
Launches in 2026
The total number of SpaceX launches for the year is forecast at 153.4, with a price of 21% that the total exceeds 170. Hitting 170 would require a historically aggressive pace for the rest of the year, roughly 14 or more launches per month through December. The 153.4 forecast still represents a massive output for any single launch provider, and the market gives it better-than-one-in-five odds of clearing that higher bar.
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