The announcement of a new James Bond is imminent, and Kalshi traders are indicating the race has narrowed down to two names.
Callum Turner has overtaken Jack Lowden to lead Kalshi's next James Bond market at 45%. Lowden is in second position at 44%.
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Jack Lowden
As covered in a previous Kalshi News article, a Deadline report confirmed that Slow Horses star Jack Lowden and One Night Only's Callum Turner were two of four actors who were offered screen tests for the role of James Bond.
The two emerged as front runners for the casting in late August, with Lowden settling in as the market leader after the Deadline report was published.
Part of Lowden’s advantage is that he’s well-versed in playing an intelligence officer (albeit, a bad one). His long-running hit series Slow Horses centers on a group of failed MI5 agents who have been relegated to the disgraced “Slough House” department. As the series lead opposite Gary Oldman, Lowden has already proven his stunt work chops and ability to fit into the gritty world of the British Secret Service.
Lowden has a lot of fan support as well. X user @CinemaTweets1 made the case for Lowden after his Kalshi odds peaked, calling him “ripe for Bond” and noting that Lowden possessed “the requisite acting chops [and] is the perfect level of famous to take on 007.”
A ScreenRant audience poll also favored Lowden, who earned 47.7% of the vote compared to Turner's 13.4%.
Callum Turner
On the other hand, some are paying attention to Turner's recent Louis Vuitton brand campaign and reading between the lines. According to Men's Journal, the brand deal could subtly indicate that he's already clinched the Bond casting.
The Sun, which originally reported on Turner's new campaign, noted, “Louis Vuitton is exactly the kind of fashion house Callum wants to associate himself with…The fact that Ian Fleming also mentioned Vuitton in his books is a clear indication that Callum is aligning himself with all the right campaigns.” Louis Vuitton is name-checked in the original James Bond novel series and was featured in the 1985 Roger Moore-led film A View to a Kill.
Still, it should be noted that this partnership isn’t new: Turner has been a Louis Vuitton ambassador since 2024, and previously walked in a runway show for the brand in 2009.
Josh O’Connor
Josh O'Connor was the third confirmed name listed in the Deadline report, but is trailing in a distant third place at 20%.
He momentarily closed the gap last week after the screen test announcement, rising to 29% and within a handful of points of his competitors, but his odds have settled back down in the days after.
Despite getting a coveted endorsement from former James Bond himself, Daniel Craig, confidence in O’Connor never really took off.
Unnamed fourth contender
All of the entertainment trades reported that as many as five actors were offered screen tests, meaning there might be two dark horses that could emerge victorious.
Kalshi traders' speculation is across the board, from The Diplomat's David Gyasi to Heartstopper's Jack Barton clocking in at 9%. Aaron Taylor-Johnson (6%), Aaron Pierre (5%) and Theo James (4%) are all listed as long-shots in the market.
Amazon MGM Studios has not yet made any formal announcements or confirmations regarding the screen tests, which are believed to have begun in London on Friday, October 23. The studio is expected to make an announcement as soon as the end of this week, depending on how the screen tests shake out.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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