Trailing by one run to start the bottom of the 12th inning of Game 4, the Tampa Bay Rays season seemed all but over.
But leadoff man Junior Caminero reached on an error and the typically stingy Milwaukee bullpen yielded a string of hits, allowing the Rays to overcome the deficit and earn a walkoff victory.
The loss is only the second the Brewers have suffered since the postseason began. Will they drop another tonight and need to play a Game 6? Markets imply otherwise, with Kalshi traders pricing them as 56% favorites in Game 5.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
World Series Game 5 Odds: Brewers favored with Misiorowski on the mound
Likely NL Cy Young winner Jacob Misiorowski has not been quite as dominant in the playoffs as he was during the regular season, but his presence alone creates an intimidating challenge for opposing hitters.
“The Miz” took the ball in Game 1, completing five innings while only allowing one run. He earned the victory in the start, but only struck out three batters in his five innings of work.
The Brewers might be looking for a bit more length from the right-hander after they needed to use eight arms to get through Tuesday’s extra-innings affair. Milwaukee leaned on all their top bullpen arms in the process, using DL Hall, Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby for more than an inning each. Closer Trevor Megill may be available again after he only needed five pitches to get through the lone hitter he faced.
On the other hand, the Rays have yet to announce a Game 5 starter opposite Misiorowski. Potential Game 5 starter Nick Martinez was used in relief to help keep their season alive, likely eliminating him as an option. Ace Drew Rasmussen was bumped to Game 2 to extend him an extra day of rest, which means he’s only had three full days of rest leading into Game 5.
Furthermore, the bullpen is similarly taxed. The team used six total arms on Tuesday, needing multiple inning outings from Martinez and top relief option Bryan Baker.
The uncertainty favors the Brewers, who still maintain a 3-1 series lead. Should the Rays find a way through Game 5, the teams will take an off day on Thursday, and take the field for Game 6 on Friday in Milwaukee.
First pitch for Game 5 is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida.
Updated World Series Odds: Tampa Bay one step closer to historic comeback
In their first potential elimination game this postseason, the Rays fought off defeat and extended their season for at least another game.
But they’ll need to do it three more times in order to complete the first ever 3-0 World Series comeback and with it earn their first franchise championship.
Kalshi traders make the odds around 9% as of Wednesday morning, up about five percentage points after they found a way through Game 4.
That means the Brewers are still trading around 90% to win the World Series. Milwaukee will need to play at most one more game away from their home ballpark, as they maintain home field advantage honors should Games 6 or 7 be necessary.
Contreras, Chourio still lead World Series MVP race
Despite dropping Game 4, Brewers leaders Jackson Chourio and William Contreras remain the favorites to win the MVP award. But their standing according to Kalshi traders has flipped following Game 4, with Chourio now trading at 47%, and Contreras now priced near 31% ahead of Game 5.
The flip follows another multi-hit game for Chourio, while Contreras posted his worst game of the series, going 0-4 at the plate. Chourio is hitting .500 on the series, with multiple extra-base hits and stolen bases.
After the pair, Brewers reliever Aaron Ashby, who set a new postseason record for the most scoreless consecutive innings pitched, is priced as the third favorite, trading around 9.7% prior to Game 5.
Meanwhile, Game 5 starter Jacob Misiorowski, who was priced as one of the most likely MVP candidates prior to the series start, is trading at just 2.8% before he takes the ball on Wednesday.
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Follow Logan Hitchcock on X: LHitch09 |
Image Source: Drovetochicago
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
