Rubio edges ahead in Kalshi’s 2028 presidential odds

Earlier today, Secretary of State Marco Rubio was priced as the favorite in Kalshi’s 2028 presidential election market, briefly overtaking Vice President J.D. Vance and Gavin Newsom before falling back into a tie with Newsom at 19%. The price swing marks the first time Rubio has led the market.

Vice President Vance, the previous favorite, is now priced just behind Rubio and Newsom at 19%.

As noted, Secretary Rubio currently has a 19% probability on Kalshi to win the 2028 U.S. presidential election. This pricing represents a significant surge. Back on March 2, he was trading at under 10¢. Overall, more than $17.3 million has been traded in this market.

By contrast, Newsom reached his peak presidential price on Kalshi (24¢) last September.

Traders have recently turned somewhat bearish on Vance, as the Ohio native’s recent change of heart on the war in Iran has caused friction within certain factions of the GOP. Vance previously spoke against using U.S. forces and resources for costly wars abroad.

While Rubio currently has a slightly higher likelihood than Vance to win the 2028 election, Vance still leads Rubio in Kalshi’s Republican presidential nominee market.

Kalshi traders presently have Vance priced at 38% to earn the GOP’s nomination, making him the favorite in this category. Rubio is priced at 28¢.

Interestingly, Kalshi’s Republican nominee market has a higher trading volume ($21.2 million and counting) compared to its outright presidential election market.

Kalshi markets now forecast:

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner

(Click here to browse Kalshi’s various markets across politics)

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