At the moment, Republicans control the White House and both chambers of Congress.
But Kalshi traders are increasingly pricing in a flip in both the Senate and the House, pushing Democratic ratings to a new all-time high in Kalshi’s American Power Index (KPOW), which measures the balance of political power between Republicans and Democrats.
The move comes amid a recent uptick in odds for Democrats to win the Senate, which are now trading at a new high of 66% as of Wednesday morning.
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Odds for Democrats to win the Senate reach new high
As Election Day nears, Kalshi traders have pushed odds for Democratic control of the Senate to 66%, up more than three percentage points in the last day of trading.
Entering the election cycle, Republicans hold a 53-47 lead in the chamber. Plus, the party is able to break ties with the Republican VP J.D. Vance, meaning that Democrats will need to earn a net gain of at least four seats on their political rivals.
Odds for the feat traded around 47% at the beginning of September, but have now jumped nearly 20 percentage points as November 3 approaches.
A recent update from Cook Political Report’s Senate race ratings provides Democrats ratings of “solid, likely, or lean” in 13 of the 35 Senate races this election, with 34 standing Democratic-held seats not up for election.
Should Democrats win all 13 of the aforementioned races, they would need to win just four of the seven “toss-up” races identified by the report to get to 51 seats. As it stands, Kalshi traders price the Democrats winning more than 52 seats at 38%.
Boosted Senate odds increase Dems Power Index Rating
As odds for the Democrats to win the Senate have jumped over the last month, so has the party’s rating in Kalshi’s American Power Index (KPOW). Democrats now stand at a measure of +4.9, up 0.8 points in just the last day of trading.
The index uses market projections of future electoral outcomes as well as non-market data to generate a real-time signal that captures the balance of political power and ranges from -50 to +50, where +50 would represent the maximum control of political power and 0 reflects a roughly equal balance of power between the two parties.
As it stands, a rating of +4.9 for Democrats measures as a “Democratic lean,” with Dems favored to win the Senate, House, and 2028 Presidential Election, according to Kalshi traders.
Which Senate races could decide control?
The Cook Political Report identifies Senate races in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas as “toss-ups” as of its October 20 update.
As of Wednesday morning, Democratic candidates maintain an edge in five of the seven races, according to Kalshi traders. Those races include 64% odds for Democratic candidates James Talairco in Texas and Troy Jackson in Maine.
Meanwhile, Sherrod Brown is priced at 66% to win his race in Ohio and Abdul El-Sayed is priced at 70% to win in Michigan.
Republicans hold an edge in the Iowa and Kansas Senate races, where Ashley Hinson and Roger Marshall are priced at 57% and 60%, respectively, to win their elections.
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