Kalshi’s “How long will the government shutdown last?” market has reached a record forecast of 46.7 days, as traders increasingly signal that the current impasse could exceed the 35-day record set in 2018–19. The market’s forecast has climbed steadily since mid-September, when traders initially expected the shutdown to last less than two weeks.
The government shutdown forecast has more than doubled in a month, reflecting growing skepticism that congressional negotiations will end the stalemate quickly. Contracts for a shutdown lasting more than 46 days now trade around 51¢, implying even odds it stretches beyond that point. Traders see roughly 56% odds of surpassing 45 days and about 18% odds of running past 60 days (November 30th).
Political pressure mounts
The rise in expectations comes as Washington faces new turmoil. According to The Wall Street Journal, lawmakers on both sides had expressed cautious optimism earlier in the week that an agreement could be near. But President Trump’s demand that Senate Republicans eliminate the filibuster rule to reopen the government has disrupted progress on a bipartisan deal.
That optimism faded after Trump posted on Truth Social urging GOP senators to “use the nuclear option” if Democrats refuse to cooperate. Senate Majority Leader John Thune reaffirmed his opposition to ending the filibuster, while Democrats accused the administration of politicizing the negotiations.
Shutdown fallout
As the shutdown continues, consequences are mounting for ordinary Americans. Food aid through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is at risk of lapsing, airports are facing growing delays, and Affordable Care Act enrollees are encountering sharply higher premiums as pandemic-era subsidies expire, Axios reports.
On Friday, two federal judges ordered the administration to release emergency funds for SNAP. In response, President Trump said he was asking the courts “to clarify how we can legally fund SNAP as soon as possible.” Roughly 42 million Americans depend on the program, and analysts warned that payments could still be delayed due to administrative backlogs.
Markets signal prolonged pain
Even as legal and political developments unfold, Kalshi traders remain skeptical of a quick resolution. The “Will the U.S. government reopen this year?” market shows a 90% chance of reopening before year-end, down five points this week, suggesting that while traders still expect a resolution, confidence is slipping.
Meanwhile, the “Will the next government funding bill be a clean CR?” market stands at 25%, signaling that few expect the next continuing resolution to pass without partisan riders or policy conditions.
The takeaway
Traders are preparing for a long shutdown with no simple exit. The 46.7-day government shutdown forecast suggests the closure could stretch well into mid-November, testing political and economic endurance alike. While most expect the government to reopen before 2026, the combination of stalled negotiations, legal uncertainty, and partisan brinkmanship has pushed expectations to historic highs.
Sources: The Wall Street Journal, Oct. 31, 2025; Axios, Oct. 31, 2025.
Image Source: David Maiolo
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