The U.S. government shutdown has now stretched into its 22nd day, making it the second longest in American history. Yet prediction markets show little optimism that an end is near.
On Kalshi, traders are forecasting the shutdown will last around 40 days, near its highest level of the month. The market slipped slightly earlier this week but has since rebounded, suggesting traders still expect the standoff to drag on. More than $15 million has been traded in the shutdown duration market.
Contracts tied to the shutdown’s length show that most traders expect it to break records before it ends. The probability that it lasts more than 35 days, which would surpass the 2018–2019 shutdown, sits at 67%, while the chance of it continuing beyond 40 days is close to 50%. Despite some daily fluctuations, the overall trend has been upward throughout October.
That market sentiment mirrors the reporting coming out of Washington. Bloomberg noted Wednesday that the shutdown has already become the second longest ever and could easily stretch into November. The outlet reported that food stamp funding could soon dry up if the impasse continues.
The political stalemate shows little sign of breaking. NBC News described President Donald Trump as “disengaged,” with Democrats calling on him to return to the negotiating table. Trump has met only once with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries since the shutdown began, and that meeting reportedly ended badly. Some Republicans admit the president has been hands-off, while others defend his focus on foreign policy.
According to CNN, Senate Democrats are holding firm, arguing that Republicans must change strategy and negotiate over the extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies. So far, GOP leaders have refused, insisting that talks can happen only after the government reopens.
What’s next?
The broader market picture reinforces that pessimism. The Kalshi market on when the House will next vote on a funding bill has fallen sharply, with traders putting just a 6% chance on a vote before Oct. 25 and 21% before the end of the month.
The odds for the next funding bill being a “clean CR,” or a straightforward continuing resolution without policy riders, have dropped to 20%, down eight points in the last day.
Together, these signals show traders see the shutdown as a long grind rather than a short-lived standoff. Trump has urged Senate Republicans to “stand firm” and says he will meet with Democrats only after the government reopens. That stance, combined with hardened positions in both parties, has left Washington at a standstill.
If Kalshi’s current forecast holds, the shutdown would likely surpass the 35-day record set in 2019 and stretch into mid-November, marking yet another test of political patience and economic resilience.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now forecast:
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