Preseason football just started, but Kalshi traders are already pricing a champion

Good afternoon, traders.

In case you missed it, yesterday was an incredibly pivotal day for millions of Americans. For the next six months, relationships across the United States are going to be put to the test. Fights are going to break out. The rate at which guys ignore their girlfriends will be increasing by nearly 100%, and the rate at which girls dump their boyfriends will be increasing by a similar percentage. And if you don’t know what I’m talking about, what I’m trying to say is: Football is back.

Click here for all our 2027 pro football markets.

Well, to be completely honest, football is only “kind of” back.

Yesterday, Thursday, August 13th, marked the first official games of the pro football preseason. The regular season won't begin for almost another month. You'll have to wait until September 9th for that to kick off.

Until then, you’re stuck watching the preseason games. Now, many people like to mention that these games don’t really matter. In some ways that’s true. The overall outcome of the preseason record doesn’t really mean a whole lot in the long run. But that's not to say that they aren't impactful. For those of us who will be trading these games this fall, the preseason can be incredibly insightful.

Coaches everywhere are going to be using these games to evaluate their rookies, find backups, try out plays, and just overall build a final roster. If a team hasn’t settled on a starter QB, for instance, preseason performance can make a huge impact on who gets the job.

This is where these games can be useful for us. We can basically do what the coaches are doing: evaluate the players rather than the outcome. If you do that, you can gain very helpful insight into who to watch out for and trade on.

^{For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NFL.}

Given the fact that we're only one day into the pro football preseason, we think there's no better time to make predictions on the 2027 championship winner. Currently, our markets have Los Angeles (R) as the top pick with a 16% shot at winning, beating out the runners-up by double. Tied for second, we have Seattle (8%) and Buffalo (8%).

So that brings up the question: why is L.A. so far ahead?

Well, for one, they did well last year. They made it to their conference championship game, only to lose to Seattle, who went on to win it all. But what's potentially more important is that they've used this offseason to try and lock down their defense.

In order to do this, they've picked up reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett and All-Pro corner Trent McDuffie. These guys are both tanks, and according to our markets, Garrett is still the number one pick for this year's Defensive Player of the Year award.

That brings us to Seattle and Buffalo. It's pretty obvious why Seattle is ranked highly for winning the championship; they literally just won last year.

The main reason they're trading at a discount, though, is probably because they've lost some important team members. Notably, last year's championship MVP Kenneth Walker III and their offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak.

The markets are still rating them highly, but likely are saying it will be hard for them to recreate the electric season they had last year.

Buffalo's current placement likely rides on the back of their QB, Josh Allen. There's no denying the guy is a beast. He has yet to win a championship for Buffalo, but he's consistently produced stellar quarterback play. Additionally, he's currently tied for the lead in our MVP prediction market. It's clear that many people believe that he's got exactly what it takes to win a ring; he just needs the right team to do it.

Over the offseason, Buffalo traded for D.J. Moore, giving Allen a solid wide receiver. Many people have argued that this is one of the key links they've been missing. It's likely that this addition, combined with Allen's stellar performances, is giving the market confidence.

Obviously, because it’s only the second day of the preseason, it's too early to get a clear picture of how things will play out. We’ve got 6 months to go, and a lot can happen. Players are going to get injured, and lineups will change.

And let's not forget, the top three teams in our championship market have a combined chance of just 32% to win it all, which means there's a 68% chance another team ends up taking home the trophy.

But the next couple of weeks will be our first real indicators of how these teams are going to perform. Keep your eyes peeled, and you’ll be able to get some solid insight into how to trade. We’re excited for the season to unfold, and we’ll keep you updated in the months to come.

Follow Jack Kuveke at Jabroni Capital
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC. Kalshi is not affiliated with the National Football League.}