2028 vision:
The Democrats: California Governor Gavin Newsom continues to lead the 2028 Democratic field with a 23% chance of clinching the nomination. Following Newsom are AOC with 9% and Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff with 8%. Notably, Ossoff’s number is despite saying this past week that he had “zero interest” in running for president in 2028. The market, for its part, believes his likelihood of seeking the 2028 Democratic nomination is closer to 40%.
The Republicans: The Republican race has remained relatively steady in the past month, with Vice President JD Vance maintaining a 38% chance of winning the nomination. Secretary of State Marco Rubio remains in a clear second, at a 26% chance. Conservative commentator Tucker Carlson, meanwhile, has seen his chance to be the GOP nominee rise from 4% to 8% in the past week as he increasingly breaks with the Trump administration on the issue of the Iran war.
The general election: Traders continue to see a favorable 2028 election for Democrats, giving them a 62% chance of winning the White House and a 48% chance of winning a trifecta, both near all-time highs.
2026 Midterms – the big picture:
Democrats lead with an 86% chance to win back the House. Traders have Democrats ahead in 231 House seats while Republicans are favored in 192. Twelve House seats are seen as tossups, meaning no party has over 60% chance of winning the district.
Overall Senate control remains a tossup, with Republicans inching ahead to a 53% chance of controlling the upper chamber. Democrats are currently favored in 50 Senate seats, including Alaska, while three Senate races (Ohio, Texas, and Iowa) are tossups.
Weekly politics roundup:
The stalemate over Hormuz continues. On Saturday, President Trump canceled a trip to Pakistan by top negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, after the Iranians remained noncommittal about meeting in person there. The two sides have not reached agreement on a deal to lift the U.S. naval blockade and reopen the Strait, which the U.S. has sought to tie to nuclear concessions from Iran. With no clear end to the stalemate in sight, traders have grown more bearish on how soon shipping traffic will return to normal in the Strait; the chance that happens by June 1 now sits at 33%, down from around 63% one week ago.
California’s governor election heats up. Six leading candidates – four Democrats and two Republicans – met for the first major debate of the California governor election, which has been scrambled by former Rep. Eric Swalwell’s exit from the race two weeks ago. Entering the debate, Democratic billionaire Steve Steyer and former California AG and HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra were near-even in their chance of winning the election. Post-debate, however, Steyer extended his lead in the markets. He currently has a 45% chance of winning the governorship, with Becerra in second with 26%. The candidates will have another chance to make their case directly to voters at the second debate this Tuesday, April 28.
Despite the Democratic field in the race remaining fragmented, a scenario where the top two advancers are both Republicans appears less likely, with traders giving that possibility just a 4% chance of occurring.
Michigan Democratic Senate hopefuls face off: The three leading Democratic contenders for Michigan Senate – a must-win race for Democrats in their quest to flip the U.S. Senate – met in Detroit Friday night for a debate in front of religious clergy. The leading candidates include progressive Abdul El-Sayed, who has surged in the markets in recent weeks to first place, and liberal state senator Mallory McMorrow. This is an election in which the issue of Israel has figured prominently, in a state that was a center of pro-Palestinian sentiment and saw “Uncommitted” claim 13% of the vote during the 2024 Democratic presidential primary. Both El-Sayed and McMorrow have been sharply critical of Israel’s war in Gaza and sworn off AIPAC funding, in contrast to Haley Stevens who has the group’s support and maintains a pro-Israel stance. She is a distant third in the market, with a 9% chance of winning the nomination.
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