U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky is facing a challenge from his own party since he broke with President Donald Trump over the Epstein files, but it does not seem to be affecting his chances of returning to Capitol Hill.
Traders price Massie's chances of becoming the Republican nominee for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District at 72%, an increase of seven percentage points since March 12. Ed Gallrein, his Trump-backed opponent, is at 29%.
Markets also suggest Massie could win comfortably. The market for his margin of victory shows a 31% chance Massie wins by 5-10 points, 27% for a margin of 0-5 points, and 16% for 10-15 points.
Massie’s poll numbers
Kalshi markets are not the only place where Massie seems to be doing well heading into his primary challenge.
The polling firm Quantus Insights shows that even though the fourth district race remains competitive, Massie leads Gallrein by a margin of 9.1%.
Massie's market numbers tell an even stronger story. Last month, the fourth district Republican primary market showed Massie at 65% just after the president started stumping for his primary opponent.
However, even with his lead, Massie's projected margin is narrower than in past reelection bids.
Massie and Trump
The Kentucky congressman made a name for himself on Capitol Hill by pushing for the release of FBI files on convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein against President Trump's wishes.
The Atlantic recently ran a profile on the Kentucky congressman titled "The Republican Who Outsmarted Trump," detailing how Massie became one of President Trump's staunchest critics in Congress.
The two were cordial before the 2024 presidential election, when Massie lobbied for a cabinet role as agriculture secretary. Since then, Massie has become one of Trump's sharpest Republican critics, particularly over efforts to release the Epstein files. In response, Trump and his allies have poured money into Gallrein's campaign.
Still, he rejects the "Never Trump" label. In a recent ad, Massie described himself as a "Mostly Trumper," noting that he agrees with President Trump "nearly all of the time," including support for the Save America Act.
"This is going to be a referendum on whether it is okay to vote with your party 90 percent of the time or whether you have to do it 100 percent," Massie told The Atlantic.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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