The failed negotiation talks between Vice President J.D. Vance and Iran appear to be weighing on his chances of becoming the next president.
Vance's price on the 2028 Republican presidential nominee market dropped from a high of 54% to 37% since the Iran War began. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's price has risen from single digits earlier in the year to 26%.
The fallout has also dented Vance's odds on the 2028 presidential election market. The vice president and Rubio are now tied at 20%, narrowly ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17%.
Talks with Iran
Some attribute the vice president’s recent dip to stalled negotiations with Iran.
The New York Times compiled a timeline of the U.S.-Iran war. Both sides held talks brokered by Pakistan. Vance also conducted talks with special envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner. Gen. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and some of the nation's top diplomats and senior military officials represented the Iranian delegation.
The first round of talks between both sides lasted 21 hours with no concessions or agreements. The Times also reported that Vance said he gave the Iranians "a take-it-or-leave-it proposal to forever terminate their nuclear program, and they left it."
The Washington Post reported that Israel and Hezbollah were able to reach a 10-day ceasefire on April 16, opening an opportunity for negotiations to resume between Iran and the U.S. Another round of talks is set to begin in Pakistan, but Vance will not be part of them. Instead, the White House said they are sending Witkoff and Kushner to conduct negotiations, although a report by Haaretz suggests those plans may be on hold.
VP approval ratings
Kalshi markets are not the only place where Vance's numbers are slipping. His approval ratings have also declined sharply.
The Hill shows that Vance's average unfavorable rating among 180 different polls currently sits at 44.7%.
CNN data analyst Harry Enten (via The Daily Beast) also reported that Vance experienced a significant decline. His net approval rating has fallen to -18, a 21-point drop since taking office.
Vice presidents often struggle to maintain strong approval numbers in office. However, Enten said Vance's ratings now make him "the least popular vice president at this point in their vice presidency."
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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