LA mayoral odds: After final debate, Nithya Raman still priced as 57% favorite

Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman still leads incumbent Mayor Karen Bass on Kalshi following their final televised debate Tuesday night.

The Los Angeles Mayor's race winner market shows Raman leading with a price of 57%, up from 55% before Tuesday's debate, followed by Bass at 43%.

^{For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.}

Raman and Bass faced off in their final debate Tuesday at 7 p.m. Pacific on NBC4 Los Angeles and Telemundo 52.

With Raman leading the Kalshi market, the debate was her opportunity to hold her position heading into Election Day.

The Los Angeles Times reported that Raman entered the debate in a relatively strong position, making it important for her to avoid mistakes that could shift the race's momentum.

“A successful debate for Raman is one in which not very much happens,” USC, UC Berkeley and Pepperdine politics professor Dan Schnur told The Times.

Bass brought years of political experience to the debate, though her performance during the mayoral primary had drawn criticism.

“[Raman] needs to [be] able to spell out a vision for the city of Los Angeles and inspire confidence that she would be able to deliver on such a vision,” Pomona College politics professor Sara Sadhwani told The Times.

Bass was the underdog heading into the debate and, with Kalshi prices unchanged after Tuesday night, remains so ahead of Election Day.

The Guardian's Dani Anguiano described the contest as a bitter, increasingly contentious battle amid dissatisfaction with Bass' administration.

“Bass has roughly a month to convince voters that she should be elected to a second term as the mayor of Los Angeles,” Anguiano wrote. “Given Angelenos’ broad dissatisfaction with the direction of the city, approval ratings on par with Donald Trump’s and a wave of anti-establishment sentiment sweeping American politics, she has a formidable challenge in city council member Nithya Raman.”

Both candidates are progressives in a heavily Democratic city, but Raman has secured the endorsement of the Los Angeles chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America. She’s part of the wave of new socialist Democrats who are competing in other regional races in places like Michigan, Colorado and city and state seats in California.

Raman has a history of outperforming political expectations. She won her seat on the Los Angeles city council by beating out a progressive incumbent Democrat who received backing from Nancy Pelosi and Hillary Clinton. Initially considered a long shot, Raman has since united key portions of the city's liberal base and major labor unions behind her campaign.

Kalshi markets now predict:

Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: City of Los Angeles

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}