Democrat Abdul El-Sayed's price in Kalshi's Michigan Senate market rose slightly following Wednesday's final debate with Republican Mike Rogers.
Kalshi's Michigan Senate winner market now shows El-Sayed's chances of victory at 70%, up one percentage point, compared with 30% for Rogers.
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The final debate
After a contentious first debate, El-Sayed and Rogers adopted a less confrontational tone during their final meeting Wednesday.
The New York Times reported that the candidates repeated several talking points from their first debate on issues like affordability and the Trump administration, but their exchanges were less heated and personal during the second.
El-Sayed spent a good portion of the debate trying to tie Rogers to President Donald Trump, whose approval ratings have been sinking.
“He invited viewers to play ‘MAGA bingo,’ in a lighthearted attempt to head off words or phrases Mr. Rogers might use to attack him,” The Times reported. “And he noted times when Mr. Rogers dodged questions about White House policy or his connections to Mr. Trump.”
Rogers also sought support from Black and Jewish voters ahead of El-Sayed's planned campaign appearances with former President Barack Obama. Rogers discussed that strategy during an appearance on Sean Hannity's show. Rogers sought to appeal to supporters of Rep. Haley Stevens, a more moderate Democrat who lost the primary to El-Sayed, particularly voters concerned about El-Sayed's positions on Israel.
Rogers' outreach comes amid concerns among some Michigan Democrats about Black voter enthusiasm for El-Sayed. Democrats fear they may be losing them in the Michigan Senate race. CNN reported that "some political leaders wonder whether there is sufficient enthusiasm among Black voters for El-Sayed at this late stage."
Stevens had some “clear strengths” during the primary, particularly her ability to align with Black and Jewish voters “who have long expressed deep concerns with El-Sayed.” Rogers has made outreach to these constituencies a priority as he seeks to narrow El-Sayed's lead.
USA Today reported that the candidates also discussed the war in Iran, with El-Sayed linking the conflict to rising oil and gasoline prices. El-Sayed again sought to connect Rogers to the Trump administration's foreign policy decisions.
“He’s got a war for everything, and he won’t back off the war now,” El-Sayed said. “He supports this war.”
Rogers called on the Trump administration to end the war, but he didn’t completely distance himself from President Donald Trump’s stance on the conflict.
“You want to pay $8 a gallon for gas?” Rogers said. “Let Iran get a nuclear weapon.”
Despite the exchanges over foreign policy and voter outreach, El-Sayed maintained his lead in the Kalshi market following the final debate. With Election Day approaching, both candidates are turning their attention to voters as Rogers looks to close the gap.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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