James Talarico, who is aiming to become the first Democrat in three decades to represent Texas in the Senate, has a 42 percentage point lead against Republican Ken Paxton, the three-term Texas attorney general, following the end of early voting on Friday.
Prediction market-implied odds of Talarico winning the Texas Senate seat stands at 71%, an increase from 63.8% one week ago, per Kalshi’s event contract on the Texas Senate winner. Paxton’s chances have dropped to 29% as of Saturday afternoon, declining from 36.2% in the same period.
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Early voting ends with new record
Nearly 6.8 million registered voters out of 18.8 million have cast an early ballot, according to NBC News citing data provided by TargetSmart. People who previously voted in Democratic primaries outnumbered their Republican counterparts, The Texas Tribune reported earlier this week.
The 6.8 million turnout number exceeds 2018’s figure of 5.5 million, the previous record for ballots cast in early voting in a non-presidential election year, per The Dallas Morning News.
Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, told The Dallas Morning News, “There’s no doubt that competition drives turnout, and we’ve seen this is the most competitive race in a decade, if not longer.” Total ballots could reach 10 million this year, which would top the 8.3 million record set in 2018, he added.
Election Day is scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 3.
Outspending Democrats
Talarico’s cushion has never been larger, even as Republicans have spent roughly $274 million on advertising in the general election for the Texas Senate, about double the $133 million spent by Democrats, according to a Friday report from The Wall Street Journal, citing data from ad-tracking firm AdImpact.
The spending from Republicans largely came from Elon Musk, a Texas resident who also relocated SpaceX and Tesla to the Lone Star State. In September, the tech billionaire contributed $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, which transferred matching sums to Texas PAC, a pro-Paxton group, according to federal filings. Those contributions make up some of the largest donations in American politics history.
Musk publicly endorsed the Republican nominee on Oct. 20 when he said on X, “The fate of Texas and America is at stake. Vote for @KenPaxtonTX today.”
The Texas Senate contest between Talarico and Paxton has become the most expensive non-presidential race ever, according to an AdImpact blog post on Friday. Much of the spending has gone toward broadcast advertising, with the two parties adopting varying strategies. “Democrats’ top issues by broadcast airings have been taxation, healthcare and corruption,” said AdImpact. “Republicans’ top issues have been crime, transgender minors and taxation, as they’ve worked to paint Talarico as too liberal.”
Meanwhile, Kalshi traders forecast Talarico’s margin of victory to stand at 3 points, an increase from 2.2 points one week ago.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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