It's a busy time in the United States. Just days out from midterm elections, we've got Halloween on Saturday, which should bring out the costumes.
Folks will be dressed up at college football games, and it's a jam-packed Saturday without any weekday Top 25 activity in Week 9.
Amidst a curious morning kickoff in local time, #22 Arizona and #13 Texas Tech square off in Lubbock. Curious odds exist for #20 Northwestern's visit to Oregon to face the Ducks. #3 Georgia and #17 Florida renew their rivalry as ranked foes. Plus, can USC save Lincoln Riley's job with the biggest program win in years against #2 Ohio State?
We’ll get the first set of College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday. Kalshi's college football traders are taking stands and looking for treats. Let’s avoid the tricks.
For informational purposes only. This is opinion, not trading advice. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA. See full disclaimer below.
#22 Arizona at #13 Texas Tech
There are just two ranked matchups on Saturday’s docket, and this has turned into an existential fork in the road for last year’s Big 12 champs.
I’ve never been the son of a billionaire, but I assume that when daddy’s not happy, you drop everything to make him happy. Right now, the Red Raiders’ collective daddy is indeed not happy:
Cody Campbell, the large donor behind Texas Tech’s athletics department, is referring to an uncompetitive 37-24 drubbing by unranked Cincinnati last week. With Utah undefeated and BYU holding a win over Notre Dame, the Red Raiders could be on the outside looking in already in the Big 12, but they definitely have to beat Arizona at home.
The Wildcats’ second season under Brent Brennan has been beyond their imagination, ranking 14th in FBS in yards per play (6.5 YPP) on offense behind senior QB Noah Fifita and 19th in YPP allowed (4.7) on defense. Their 11-point loss to Brigham Young has aged like wine, and they’ve won every other game by double digits.
Texas Tech sent their entire defensive line to the NFL, and it shows. They're 72nd in sack rate (6.37%), and the Brendan Sorsby disaster this summer has taken a massive toll on their passing game. Will Hammond (63.1 QBR), coming off a 2025 ACL tear, has looked like a shell of himself.
Kalshi traders have not let this spread get very large. Venue alone won’t save Tech if they can’t right the ship from last week quickly.
Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Arizona 28, Texas Tech 27
#20 Northwestern at Oregon
Like last week, it was an eyebrow-raiser that unranked South Carolina was favored over a top-15 team. This one is a little less surprising given the pedigree of these two programs.
Oregon's campaign has largely been derailed by injuries. QB Dante Moore is done for the year, and WR Evan Stewart (personal) is having more trouble staying on the field after last season's ACL tear. Once considered the best insurance policy in college football, Nebraska transfer Dylan Raiola (52.1 QBR) is 1-2 as a starter, and the offense is averaging just 14.0 PPG in this time.
On the other side, Northwestern turned heads with a six-point loss in Bloomington against Indiana earlier this year, and they’ve beaten four straight unranked foes with a combined 9-20 record since that appearance.
Keep that context in mind as I tell you they’re just 20th on offense and 52nd on defense on a YPP basis.
Before the year, the sentiment in this one had to be “Oregon is going to smash Northwestern at home.” Raiola’s poor play has been surprising, but I haven’t radically shifted my view of these two teams to go from that to picking perhaps the worst football program in the history of the Big Ten to win at Autzen Stadium just because they’ve beaten a few bad teams.
Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Oregon 27, Northwestern 20
#17 Florida at #3 Georgia
The site change to Jacksonville is among the reasons Florida and Georgia’s rivalry is one of the most meaningful in college football, but that’s on hold as EverBank Stadium undergoes renovations. It’ll be at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, home of the Falcons, in 2026.
Some say that’s a key advantage for Georgia, but they might have earned it. They’ve won seven of the last eight against the Gators in this dominant period, where Kirby Smart’s bunch have earned five SEC Championship appearances since 2021. They’re in a decent spot for another.
Georgia’s 2026 schedule is brutal, though. They’re currently in a stretch of four ranked teams in five games. Auburn, the lone exception, just beat them at Jordan-Hare. I don’t know if there’s ever been a more appropriate “trap game” label.
I think it’s interesting that the Dawgs, allowing 3.3 yards per carry (YPC; 19th in FBS), aren’t quite as dominant against the run as they have been in prior seasons. That’s Florida’s jam, ranking 25th in the nation in rushing yards per game (191.0).
Gators QB Aaron Philo (shoulder) is "trending toward available". This market really hasn't changed despite that significant news, and it's because Florida's defense (5.7 YPP allowed) is the real concern.
Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Georgia 38, Florida 26
#2 Ohio State at USC
It probably isn’t fair to have Lincoln Riley’s job dependent on USC’s playoff hopes, but they certainly have to put forth a much better effort than last Saturday down the stretch.
A lifeless 24-7 loss in Madison to the unranked Badgers isn't what any Trojans fan imagined when they forked over $110 million guaranteed to the former Oklahoma coach in 2021. In general, USC's offense has been good (6.1 YPP; 32nd in FBS), but that stinker doesn't help what has largely been the same defensive struggle for multiple seasons. Southern Cal is an ugly 69th in YPP allowed with just the 46th-toughest schedule in the country, per ESPN.
The easy part of the schedule is over. Ohio State begins a run that also includes two other top-10 teams, Indiana and UCLA, over the next four games. Godspeed.
If there is any asylum for USC, it is that QB Julian Sayin's injury means we'll get a backup quarterback for the Bucks. It'll be either Luke Fahey or Tavien St. Clair, and I'd go with whoever can get the ball to Heisman Trophy odds-on favorite Jeremiah Smith on the perimeter.
The Trojans are 105th in yards per attempt allowed through the air. Can Jayden Maiava keep up with the talented receiver, who should undoubtedly get his?
Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Ohio State 31, USC 27
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