Michael Bloomberg, billionaire and former New York City mayor, spent roughly $80 million in the last two months to support Democrats in the midterm elections, per a Tuesday report from The New York Times.
Prediction market-implied odds that Democrats win both chambers of Congress stand at 65%, making it the most likely midterm outcome, according to Kalshi’s traders.
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Where the money is going
Through his donations, Bloomberg is focused on helping Democrats win a sizable House majority, well above the 218 seats needed.
The difference between Democrats controlling 221 seats in the House and 230 seats matters, said Bloomberg’s political adviser Howard Wolfson, pointing to the number of potential seats Democrats could hold next year.
Around $50 million of Bloomberg’s total is earmarked for House elections, including $24 million to Everytown for Gun Safety and another $16 million to the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC, The Times said.
The former New York City mayor also sent $2.5 million to a super PAC backing James Talarico, the Democratic Senate candidate in Texas who leads in prediction market odds. Bloomberg’s contribution to Talarico marks the only Senate race he has put money into this cycle, per a report from The Washington Post.
Meanwhile, traders have given a 91% probability that the lower chamber of Congress turns blue, a figure that has held steady in the last month, and a 66% chance Democrats take control of the Senate, the upper house of the U.S. government’s legislative branch.
Bloomberg's $80 million donation comes as President Trump's super PAC and rocket billionaire Elon Musk have dedicated hundreds of millions of dollars to support Republicans in their fight to control Congress. Since July, Musk has poured more than $276 million into conservative groups and his super PAC, making him the largest public donor in the midterms, The Times reported.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
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