Earlier this week, Democrats took the lead in Kalshi's U.S. Senate winner market. Since then, traders have remained bullish, pushing their odds of victory to 57%, an all-time high.
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Meanwhile, Democrats have also reached a new high on Kalshi's U.S. House control market, with traders now pricing their odds of winning at 89%, compared with 11% for Republicans.
What do the polls say?
Recent polling also shows Democrats ahead on the generic congressional ballot.
The Hill reported that a new Quinnipiac University poll found 49% of respondents supporting Democratic congressional candidates, compared with 38% supporting Republicans, an 11-point gap.
“If the midterms were held today, 49 percent of survey respondents said they would support Democrats, compared with the 38 percent who would back the GOP,” The Hill reported. “Another 13 percent of respondents were unsure or gave no response.”
Key Senate races
Republicans hold a six-seat advantage in the Senate and a four-seat advantage in the House. Two Senate races where Democratic candidates lead their respective Kalshi markets are Texas and Maine.
Many eyes are on Texas, where Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico are running for Senate. Talarico leads Kalshi's Texas Senate market at 55%, compared with 45% for Paxton.
Paxton was late to launch his advertising campaign, giving Talarico early control of the election’s narrative. The Texas Tribune reported that Paxton launched his first substantial broadcast ad buy of the general election this week after Talarico had the airwaves largely to himself over the summer.
The Maine Senate race is also running some interesting numbers on the Kalshi market. Democrat Troy Jackson holds a wider lead on Kalshi's Maine Senate market, at 68% compared with 32% for Republican Sen. Susan Collins.
A CNN/SSRS poll found Jackson at 48% and Collins at 45%, a three-point difference that falls within the poll's 3.7-percentage-point margin of error.
“A 53% majority say that party control of the Senate is the top consideration in their vote, and nearly half cite the state of U.S. democracy as their top issue,” CNN reported.
The poll also found that Jackson's supporters were more likely to describe their vote as opposition to Collins than support for Jackson.
“Roughly 7 in 10 of Jackson’s backers say they’d be casting their ballot more out of opposition to Collins than support for him, while only a quarter of Collins backers are motivated by their opposition to Jackson,” CNN reported.
The state-level markets show substantially different margins: Talarico leads Paxton 55%-45% in Texas, while Jackson leads Collins 68%-32% in Maine, as Democrats sit at their new 57% high on the Senate control market.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
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