Democrats have overtaken Republicans on Kalshi's market for control of the U.S. Senate after the midterm elections. Democrats’ chances are now priced at 52%, compared with 48% for Republicans.
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Why is the Senate race tightening?
Election Day is less than two months away, and Republican leaders acknowledge that control of the Senate remains competitive.
The Associated Press reported that Senate Majority Leader John Thune told South Dakota’s KELO-TV that he’s worried about Republicans losing control of the House and the Senate.
“I’m a realist,” Thune said. “I don’t ever try and sugarcoat things. I think it’s a competitive environment right now.”
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the Senate, with 33 regularly scheduled Senate races on the ballot in November. Democrats have also become competitive in traditionally Republican states, including Texas, where Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is running against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton.
“We now have multiple paths for the majority,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told the AP. “We found new states – Iowa, Texas – which people a year ago weren’t even paying attention to.”
The New York Times’ Tim Balk wrote that Democrats also must defend two Senate seats in states that Trump won in the 2024 presidential election “and four of the six most competitive races are in states Mr. Trump won by double digits.”
Balk also noted that voters are uneasy about President Donald Trump's handling of several major issues, including the Iran war and the economy. He wrote the war “has driven increases in the costs of fuel, food, and health services, putting Republicans on the defensive in states they once saw as much safer terrain.”
President Trump’s approval rating has fallen below 40% in some recent polling averages, and he’s tried to motivate his base by telling voters during a recent South Carolina rally to “pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot.”
“It’s a 50-50 tossup,” Republican strategist Douglas Heye told The Times. “Republicans are nervous. They’ve watched Trump’s numbers be a constant limbo contest of ‘How low can they go?’”
Trouble in Texas?
The Hill reported that the latest AARP survey for the Texas Senate race also shows that 48% support Talarico and 44% support Paxton. The survey also found that a majority of Texas voters aged 50 or older support Paxton.
The pattern seems to be repeating in other polls.
“Talarico has pulled ahead of Paxton in several recent surveys, posting a 5-point lead in a YouGov survey released last week and a 6-point lead in a poll sponsored by Texas Public Opinion Research from the end of August,” The Hill reported.
The American Power Index
The shift in the Senate control market coincides with movement on Kalshi's American Power Index, which is currently listed as “even,” marking the first time the GOP is not in the lead since early May.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
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